NewMarket Corporation (NEU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NewMarket Corporation stock $628, price $694, that is 9.5% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $259.40 – $958.64 · fair‑value band $447.14 – $809.32 · the $694.31 price screens above the $628.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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NewMarket Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of petroleum additives.
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It offers lubricant additives for use in various vehicle and industrial applications, including engine oils, transmission fluids, off-road powertrain and hydraulic systems, gear oils, hydraulic oils, turbine oils, and other applications where metal-to-metal moving parts are utilized; engine oil additives designed for passenger cars, motorcycles, on and off-road heavy duty commercial equipment, locomotives, and engines in ocean-going vessels; driveline additives designed for products, such as transmission fluids, axle fluids, and off-road powertrain fluids; and industrial additives designed for products for industrial applications consisting of hydraulic fluids, greases, industrial gear fluids, and industrial specialty applications comprising turbine oils.
The company also provides fuel additives that are used to enhance the oil refining process and the performance of gasoline, diesel, biofuels, and other fuels to industry, government, original equipment manufacturers, and individual customers.
In addition, it engages in the marketing of antiknock compounds, as well as contracted manufacturing and related services; and owns and manages a real property in Virginia.
The company operates in North America, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, and internationally. NewMarket Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
NewMarket Corporation (NEU) currently trades at $694.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $628.23, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $683.25 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $694.31 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $158.91, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $447.14 (bear) to $809.32 (bull), the price of $694.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NewMarket Corporation reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $419M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.0B Mid · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 2.93 · EPS (TTM) $46.47 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 15.8% · Return on equity 25.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −10%, NEU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$447.14Fair Value $628.23Bull$809.32
Price $694.31 · Downside -9.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($29.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyTing XuDirector400 shares at $619.21$247,684Feb 24, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.4% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about 0.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate durability stems from pricing power and cash metrics in established petroleum additives, yet thin public signals and limited diversification constrain conviction across most factors.
Main risk: Ongoing pressures in the petroleum additives core could constrain overall growth if the new aerospace and defense units remain a smaller complement.
NewMarket runs its established petroleum additives operations alongside specialty materials units that supply aerospace and defense applications. Capacity additions in ammonium perchlorates and high-purity hydrazine are scheduled to start contributing by the end of this year. Will these moves broaden the business enough to offset pressures in the additives core, or will they remain a smaller complement?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.93× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.4× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NewMarket Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEU
Frequently asked questions
Is NewMarket Corporation (NEU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $628.23 versus a price of $694.31, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NEU?
Our model-based fair value for NewMarket Corporation is $628.23 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $694.31.
What is the quality score of NEU?
NewMarket Corporation has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $628.23 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $447.14, optimistic scenario $809.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NewMarket Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $628.23, about 10% lower versus a price of $694.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $447.14, optimistic scenario $809.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
NewMarket Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does NewMarket Corporation pay a dividend?
NewMarket Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NewMarket Corporation (NEU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NewMarket Corporation pays a dividend of $11.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2006. The payout ratio is 25.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.55 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NewMarket Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NEU use?
Our models discount NewMarket Corporation at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NewMarket Corporation that is +2.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NewMarket Corporation (NEU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NewMarket Corporation grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NewMarket Corporation (NEU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NewMarket Corporation (+2.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.53 %: that much free cash flow NewMarket Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NewMarket Corporation it is $628.23 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $694.31. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NewMarket Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NEU trades above its calculated fair value: price $694.31, fair value $628.23, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($694.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($628.23). For NewMarket Corporation the two are $66.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NewMarket Corporation worth?
The market values NewMarket Corporation at about $8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $694.31; our models calculate a fair value of $628.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEU?
Our models span a range for NewMarket Corporation: cautious scenario $447.14, base $628.23, optimistic $809.32 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $694.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NEU?
NewMarket Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $628.23 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.7. Other multiples: PEG 5.6, P/B 4.5, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NEU?
The PEG ratio of NewMarket Corporation is 5.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Balance-sheet figures for NewMarket Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 25.1%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEU from its 52-week high?
NewMarket Corporation trades at $694.31, about 28% below its 52-week high of $958.64 and 20% above the low of $577.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $628.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NewMarket Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NewMarket Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $694.31, calculated fair value $628.23 (−10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEU calculated?
We run NewMarket Corporation through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $628.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. NewMarket Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $694.31. Our model-based fair value is $628.23, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NewMarket Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($447.14 to $809.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of NewMarket Corporation (NEU) come from?
Earnings per share at NewMarket Corporation grew +9.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NewMarket Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The market capitalisation of NewMarket Corporation is $8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NewMarket Corporation is 2.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Earnings per share at NewMarket Corporation are $46.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The dividend yield of NewMarket Corporation is 1.7% (payout 25.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The net margin of NewMarket Corporation is 15.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NewMarket Corporation is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NewMarket Corporation is 16.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
The operating margin of NewMarket Corporation is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Revenue at NewMarket Corporation is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NewMarket Corporation (NEU)?
Earnings per share at NewMarket Corporation are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NewMarket Corporation (NEU) carry?
The net debt of NewMarket Corporation is $884M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026