EN DE
Watch NL Industries Inc for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
Data-driven stock valuation

NL Industries Inc (NL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NL Industries Inc stock $4.10, price $7.13, that is 42.5% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials US

NI NL Industries Inc logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

NL Industries Inc

NL · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Quality 52/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr in USD)
5.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Some data
Fair value $4.10 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -3.0% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 24/100
⚠ Small free float
Watch NL Industries Inc for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$8.25 $3.53 Fair Value $4.10 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.53 – $8.25 · fair‑value band $3.87 – $4.30 · the $7.13 price screens above the $4.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.

Follow NL Industries in your weekly email

Every Wednesday you see whether NL Industries is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.

We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

NLI Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the component products industry in Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.

Show moreShow less

The company manufactures and sells mechanical and electronic cabinet locks and other locking mechanisms, including disc tumbler locks; pin tumbler locking mechanisms under KeSet, System 64, TuBar, and Turbine brands; and electronic locks under CompX eLock and StealthLock brands for use in various applications, such as mailboxes, ignition systems, file cabinets, desk drawers, tool storage cabinets, high security medical cabinetry, integrated inventory and access control secured narcotics boxes, electronic circuit panels, storage compartments, gas station security, vending, and cash containment machines.

It also provides original equipment and aftermarket stainless steel exhaust headers, exhaust pipes, mufflers, and other exhaust components; gauges, such as GPS speedometers and tachometers; mechanical, electronic controls, and throttles; wake enhancement devices, trim tabs, steering wheels, and billet aluminum accessories; dash panels, LED indicators, wire harnesses; and grab handles, pin cleats, and other accessories for performance and ski/wakeboard and performance boats.

In addition, the company produces and markets value-added titanium dioxide pigments, a base industrial product used in imparting whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability to a diverse range of customer applications and end-use markets, including coatings, plastics, paper, inks, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and other industrial and consumer products.

The company sells its component products directly to original equipment manufacturers, as well as through distributors. The company was formerly known as NL Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NLI Holdings, Inc. in May 2026. NL Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

NLI Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Valhi, Inc.

Stock analysis

NL Industries Inc (NL) currently trades at $7.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.10, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.63 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $7.13 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.00, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.87 (bear) to $4.30 (bull), the price of $7.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

NL Industries Inc reported revenue of $158M in FY2025 versus $141M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $349M Small · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5200 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −23.9% · Return on equity −0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −42%, NL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.87 Fair Value $4.10 Bull $4.30
Price $7.13 · Downside -42.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $3.87 $4.10 $4.30 74
ROIC Compounder $3.87 $4.10 $4.30 72
EV/EBITDA $4.95 $5.82 $6.70 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $3.87 $4.10 $4.30 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $4.80 $5.63 $6.46 66
EV/EBITDA $4.95 $5.82 $6.70 67
EV/Revenue $4.09 $4.85 $5.61 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6600 $1.00 $1.24 55
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $3.87 $4.10 $4.30 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 7
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 93
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 58
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 66
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 66
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.3% (2019) → 26.0% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NL screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Allegion plc →

Compare NL Industries Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −42.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −8.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −3.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 7.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.10× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥14.54 ¥32.12 +121% vs NL
The Brink's Company BCO $110.25 $121.16 +10% vs NL
ADT Inc ADT $9.86 $10.67 +8% vs NL
Brady Corporation BRC $78.72 $84.37 +7% vs NL
S-1 Corporation 012750 98,400 KRW 99,629 KRW +1% vs NL
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 506.00 kr 496.43 −2% vs NL
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $170.14 $121.81 −28% vs NL
Allegion plc ALLE $185.39 $129.15 −30% vs NL
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $28.67 $18.76 −35% vs NL
The GEO Group GEO $27.80 $13.08 −53% vs NL

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend StocksUndervalued 52-Week Low Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Free calculator Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Free calculator
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorP/E Ratio CalculatorPEG Ratio CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorIntrinsic ValueIntrinsic vs Extrinsic ValueP/E Ratio by Sector
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

NL Industries Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NL Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NL

Frequently asked questions

Is NL Industries Inc (NL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.10 versus a price of $7.13, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NL?
Our model-based fair value for NL Industries Inc is $4.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.13.
What is the quality score of NL?
NL Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.87, optimistic scenario $4.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NL Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.10, about 42% lower versus a price of $7.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.87, optimistic scenario $4.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
NL Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $166M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does NL Industries Inc pay a dividend?
NL Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NL Industries Inc (NL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NL Industries Inc pays a dividend of $0.36 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 19, 2026, with payment on Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2020. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NL Industries Inc it is $4.10 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $7.13. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is NL Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NL trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.13, fair value $4.10, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.10). For NL Industries Inc the two are $3.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NL Industries Inc worth?
The market values NL Industries Inc at about $349M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $7.13; our models calculate a fair value of $4.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NL?
Our models span a range for NL Industries Inc: cautious scenario $3.87, base $4.10, optimistic $4.30 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $7.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Balance-sheet figures for NL Industries Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −0.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NL from its 52-week high?
NL Industries Inc trades at $7.13, about 14% below its 52-week high of $8.25 and 46% above the low of $4.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NL Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NL Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $7.13, calculated fair value $4.10 (−42%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NL calculated?
We run NL Industries Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. NL Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $7.13. Our model-based fair value is $4.10, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NL Industries Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($3.87 to $4.30), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of NL Industries Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The market capitalisation of NL Industries Inc is $349M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NL Industries Inc is 2.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Earnings per share at NL Industries Inc are $−0.5200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The dividend yield of NL Industries Inc is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The net margin of NL Industries Inc is −23.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NL Industries Inc is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NL Industries Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NL Industries Inc (NL)?
The operating margin of NL Industries Inc is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Revenue at NL Industries Inc is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NL Industries Inc (NL)?
Earnings per share at NL Industries Inc are growing +24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NL Industries Inc (NL) generate?
The free cash flow of NL Industries Inc is −$40.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NL Industries Inc (NL) hold?
NL Industries Inc holds more cash than debt, $113M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed

Watch NL Industries Inc in the live analysis

One click puts NL Industries Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.