NLI Holdings (NL) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $293M

A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.58 – $8.38 · fair‑value band $4.42 – $5.28 · the $6.49 price screens above the $4.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

NLI Holdings (NL) currently trades at $6.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.77, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, NLI Holdings generated revenue of $159M at a net margin of -21.5%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $113M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $4.42 (bear case) to $5.28 (bull case); at $6.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -27%, NL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($5.63) versus Earnings-Based ($3.72). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

NLI Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the component products industry in Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.

Full company description

NLI Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the component products industry in Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells mechanical and electronic cabinet locks and other locking mechanisms, including disc tumbler locks; pin tumbler locking mechanisms under KeSet, System 64, TuBar, and Turbine brands; and electronic locks under CompX eLock and StealthLock brands for use in various applications, such as mailboxes, ignition systems, file cabinets, desk drawers, tool storage cabinets, high security medical cabinetry, integrated inventory and access control secured narcotics boxes, electronic circuit panels, storage compartments, gas station security, vending, and cash containment machines. It also provides original equipment and aftermarket stainless steel exhaust headers, exhaust pipes, mufflers, and other exhaust components; gauges, such as GPS speedometers and tachometers; mechanical, electronic controls, and throttles; wake enhancement devices, trim tabs, steering wheels, and billet aluminum accessories; dash panels, LED indicators, wire harnesses; and grab handles, pin cleats, and other accessories for performance and ski/wakeboard and performance boats. In addition, the company produces and markets value-added titanium dioxide pigments, a base industrial product used in imparting whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability to a diverse range of customer applications and end-use markets, including coatings, plastics, paper, inks, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and other industrial and consumer products. The company sells its component products directly to original equipment manufacturers, as well as through distributors. The company was formerly known as NL Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NLI Holdings, Inc. in May 2026. NL Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is based in Dallas, Texas. NLI Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Valhi, Inc.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NLI Holdings reported revenue of $158M in FY2025 versus $141M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.8M in FY2025.

NL screens 27% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.