Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Northwest Natural Gas Co stock $40.00, price $51.75, that is 22.7% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.37 – $54.74 · fair‑value band $28.00 – $52.32 · the $51.75 price screens above the $40.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Northwest Natural Holding Company, through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, provides regulated natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: NWN Gas Utility, SiEnergy, and NWN Water.
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The company operates mist gas storage facility contracted to utilities, third-party marketers, and electric generators; offers natural gas asset management services; interstate storage; and operates an appliance retail center.
It also engages in the gas storage, water and wastewater, non-regulated renewable natural gas, and other investment businesses.
In addition, the company offers natural gas services in Oregon and southwest Washington; water and wastewater connections; and operation, maintenance, and management services to water and wastewater system owners.
Northwest Natural Holding Company was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.
Stock analysis
Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) currently trades at $51.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.00, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $46.50 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $51.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.58, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.00 (bear) to $52.32 (bull), the price of $51.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Northwest Natural Gas Co reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $860M in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $113M in FY2025, compounding +9.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B Mid · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 1.69 · EPS (TTM) $3.01 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −23%, NWN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.00Fair Value $40.00Bull$52.32
Price $51.75 · Downside -22.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8907 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $20,128, on May 12, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $374,516.
SaleDavid Hugo AndersonDirector6× since Nov 17, 2025: 14,968 shares, avg. $48.94$732,607Oct 19, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyPeter J BragdonDirector400 shares at $50.32$20,128May 12, 2026
BuyJustin PalfreymanPresident & CEO, Director1,225 shares at $48.75$59,719May 7, 2026
SaleDavid A. WeberVP, Gas Supply2× since Mar 5, 2026: 1,701 shares, avg. $52.57$89,401Mar 23, 2026
SaleJoseph S KarneyVP, Eng. & Utility Operations1.14 shares at $52.53$60Mar 5, 2026
SaleKimberly Heiting RushPresident1.17 shares at $52.53$61Mar 5, 2026
SaleMelinda B. RogersVP, Chief HR and0.13 shares at $52.54$7Mar 5, 2026
SaleZachary D KravitzVP, Regulatory Affairs and1.06 shares at $52.53$56Mar 5, 2026
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.0% vs 3.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 31%
Compare Northwest Natural Gas Co with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northwest Natural Gas Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWN
Frequently asked questions
Is Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.00 versus a price of $51.75, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NWN?
Our model-based fair value for Northwest Natural Gas Co is $40.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.75.
What is the quality score of NWN?
Northwest Natural Gas Co has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.00, optimistic scenario $52.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northwest Natural Gas Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.00, about 23% lower versus a price of $51.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.00, optimistic scenario $52.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Northwest Natural Gas Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Northwest Natural Gas Co pay a dividend?
Northwest Natural Gas Co currently shows a dividend yield of 3.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Northwest Natural Gas Co pays a dividend of $1.97 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 61.7% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 65.4%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northwest Natural Gas Co it is $40.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $51.75. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Northwest Natural Gas Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NWN trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.75, fair value $40.00, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.00). For Northwest Natural Gas Co the two are $11.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northwest Natural Gas Co worth?
The market values Northwest Natural Gas Co at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $51.75; our models calculate a fair value of $40.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWN?
Our models span a range for Northwest Natural Gas Co: cautious scenario $28.00, base $40.00, optimistic $52.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $51.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWN?
Northwest Natural Gas Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.7 (reported for FY2025: 18.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 19.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NWN?
The PEG ratio of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 2.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northwest Natural Gas Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 1.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWN from its 52-week high?
Northwest Natural Gas Co trades at $51.75, about 5% below its 52-week high of $54.74 and 16% above the low of $44.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northwest Natural Gas Co?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northwest Natural Gas Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $51.75, calculated fair value $40.00 (−23%), Quality Score 38/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWN calculated?
We run Northwest Natural Gas Co through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $40.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Northwest Natural Gas Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $51.75. Our model-based fair value is $40.00, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northwest Natural Gas Co right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($28.00 to $52.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) come from?
Earnings per share at Northwest Natural Gas Co grew +2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northwest Natural Gas Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The market capitalisation of Northwest Natural Gas Co is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 1.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Earnings per share at Northwest Natural Gas Co are $3.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The dividend yield of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 3.8% (payout 61.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 65.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The net margin of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
The operating margin of Northwest Natural Gas Co is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Revenue at Northwest Natural Gas Co is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?
Earnings per share at Northwest Natural Gas Co are growing +6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) generate?
The free cash flow of Northwest Natural Gas Co is −$198M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) carry?
The net debt of Northwest Natural Gas Co is $2.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026