On Holding Ltd (ONON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of On Holding Ltd stock $27.17, price $38.62, that is 29.6% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.00 – $63.62 · fair‑value band $17.83 – $41.80 · the $38.62 price screens above the $27.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific.
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The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers.
It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms.
On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
On Holding Ltd (ONON) currently trades at $38.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.17, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $36.80 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $38.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.10, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $17.83 (bear) to $41.80 (bull), the price of $38.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
On Holding Ltd reported revenue of CHF 2.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 725M in FY2021, a compound +41.2%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 195M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $13.0B Large · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) $1.50 · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −30%, ONON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.83Fair Value $27.17Bull$41.80
Price $38.62 · Downside -29.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors bought shares worth $10.6M, most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $115,321. Buying cluster
SaleFrank SluisCFO687 shares at $27.74$19,057Sep 8, 2026
SaleScott Andrew MaguireCOO2× since Jun 8, 2026: 3,009 shares, avg. $31.99$96,263Sep 8, 2026
BuyOlivier BernhardExecutive Officer, Director2× since May 14, 2026: 125,000 shares, avg. $33.53$4.2MAug 14, 2026
BuyCaspar Felix CoppettiExecutive Officer & Co-CEO, Director2× since May 14, 2026: 125,000 shares, avg. $33.53$4.2MAug 14, 2026
BuyDavid Michael AllemannExecutive Officer & Co-CEO, Director60,000 shares at $36.63$2.2MMay 14, 2026
SaleMartin HoffmannCEO6× since Mar 23, 2026: 24,900 shares, avg. $35.34$879,925Apr 27, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 13%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.8% a year for the price and +16.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Brand positioning underpins margins and direct-to-consumer momentum, yet thin evidence of durable advantages leaves the business exposed to margin pressure from competition.
Main risk: Nike could rebuild its position in running with refreshed products and wholesale push, pressuring On Holding's shelf space, market share gains and ability to maintain full-price discipline in a more promotional environment.
Bull case: On Holding could leverage its DTC momentum, international expansion, LightSpray manufacturing innovation and brand partnerships to defend share against Nike while passing on costs and broadening beyond core footwear.
Bear case: Intensifying competition from Nike combined with persistent tariff pressures on Vietnam sourcing could force promotions, compress margins and slow growth if the brand's premium positioning weakens or consumers shift to alternatives.
On Holding is deliberately managing wholesale shipments to protect full-price integrity in a promotional environment and clear space for new innovations. This supports strong direct-to-consumer momentum and margin expansion yet leads to a tempered full-year growth outlook. Our models see it as overvalued. Will this disciplined approach strengthen the brand for the long term or limit its ability to keep pace with faster-growing peers?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)12.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B6.46× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.28× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow41.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.49× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)68· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)96· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is On Holding Ltd (ONON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.17 versus a price of $38.62, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ONON?
Our model-based fair value for On Holding Ltd is $27.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.62.
What is the quality score of ONON?
On Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.83, optimistic scenario $41.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the On Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.17, about 30% lower versus a price of $38.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.83, optimistic scenario $41.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
On Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 3.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, On Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +26.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +46.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONON use?
Our models discount On Holding Ltd at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For On Holding Ltd that is +26.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has On Holding Ltd (ONON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at On Holding Ltd grew +46.6 % a year. The price currently implies +26.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of On Holding Ltd (ONON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into On Holding Ltd (+26.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.39 %: that much free cash flow On Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For On Holding Ltd it is $27.17 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $38.62. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is On Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ONON trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.62, fair value $27.17, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.17). For On Holding Ltd the two are $11.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is On Holding Ltd worth?
The market values On Holding Ltd at about $13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $38.62; our models calculate a fair value of $27.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONON?
Our models span a range for On Holding Ltd: cautious scenario $17.83, base $27.17, optimistic $41.80 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $38.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONON?
On Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.17 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 39.4 (reported for FY2025: 51.7). Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 6.5, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 19.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ONON?
The PEG ratio of On Holding Ltd is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Balance-sheet figures for On Holding Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 24.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONON from its 52-week high?
On Holding Ltd trades at $38.62, about 24% below its 52-week high of $50.63 and 44% above the low of $26.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to On Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is On Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $38.62, calculated fair value $27.17 (−30%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONON calculated?
We run On Holding Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. On Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $38.62. Our model-based fair value is $27.17, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with On Holding Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($17.83 to $41.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of On Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The market capitalisation of On Holding Ltd is $13.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of On Holding Ltd is 1.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Earnings per share at On Holding Ltd are $1.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The net margin of On Holding Ltd is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of On Holding Ltd is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of On Holding Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
The operating margin of On Holding Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Revenue at On Holding Ltd is growing +13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at On Holding Ltd (ONON)?
Earnings per share at On Holding Ltd are growing +81.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does On Holding Ltd (ONON) hold?
On Holding Ltd holds more cash than debt, CHF 439M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026