PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PKSHA Technology Inc stock $19.46, price $22.70, that is 14.3% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
PKSHA Technology Inc. provides algorithmic solutions in Japan.
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The company offers demand forecasting and optimization, shelf allocation automation and optimization, and shift optimization solutions for retail and distribution industries; VIN recognition, parking DX, urban security, and mobile-related solutions for automotive and urban development industries; and fraud detection and credit AI scoring solutions for lending and banking industries.
It also provides insurance fraud claims detection, business efficiency, and risk prediction solutions for insurance industry; learning history utilization, business automation, online calling solutions for education industry; and diagnostic aids, pharmaceutical marketing support, personalized medicine and personal health record utilization, and operational DX solutions for medical and healthcare industries.
In addition, the company offers PKSHA ChatAgent, an AI-powered conversational automation solution; PKSHA FAQ, which enables customers to self-resolve inquiries; PKSHA VoiceAgent, an automated AI voice conversation solution; PKSHA Speech Insight, an AI voice transcription and call analysis solution; and PKSHA Knowledge Stream, a solution to create FAQs from documents and interaction logs.
Further, it provides PKSHA AI helpdesk for internal inquiries; no-code RPA solutions; and Yomel by PKSHA that automatically transcribe meetings and create minutes with AI speech recognition. PKSHA Technology Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF) currently trades at $22.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.46, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $29.12 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $22.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $10.74, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.62 (bear) to $25.30 (bull), the price of $22.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PKSHA Technology Inc reported revenue of ¥21.8B in FY2025 versus ¥11.5B in FY2022, a compound +23.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.7B in FY2025, compounding +47.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $705M Small · P/E ratio 43.7 · P/S ratio 5.38 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% (4-year average) · Operating margin 13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −14%, PKSHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.62Fair Value $19.46Bull$25.30
Price $22.70 · Downside -14.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5200 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+51.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 24%
2025 sits 216% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+36.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.4% a year for the price and +33.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 345 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)81.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.7× · Pricier than median
P/B3.24× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.22× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.3× · Pricier than median
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Is PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.46 versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $22.70, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PKSHF?
Our model-based fair value for PKSHA Technology Inc is $19.46 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 30, 2026): $22.70.
What is the quality score of PKSHF?
PKSHA Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.46 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.62, optimistic scenario $25.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PKSHA Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.46, about 14% lower versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $22.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.62, optimistic scenario $25.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
PKSHA Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥34.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PKSHA Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PKSHF use?
Our models discount PKSHA Technology Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PKSHA Technology Inc that is +15.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at PKSHA Technology Inc grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PKSHA Technology Inc (+15.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.80 %: that much free cash flow PKSHA Technology Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PKSHA Technology Inc it is $19.46 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $22.70. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PKSHA Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, PKSHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.70, fair value $19.46, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKSHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.46). For PKSHA Technology Inc the two are $3.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PKSHA Technology Inc worth?
The market values PKSHA Technology Inc at about $705M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $22.70; our models calculate a fair value of $19.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PKSHF?
Our models span a range for PKSHA Technology Inc: cautious scenario $13.62, base $19.46, optimistic $25.30 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $22.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PKSHF?
PKSHA Technology Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.7 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for PKSHA Technology Inc (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to PKSHA Technology Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PKSHA Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $22.70, calculated fair value $19.46 (−14%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKSHF calculated?
We run PKSHA Technology Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. PKSHA Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 30, 2026 and stands at $22.70. Our model-based fair value is $19.46, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PKSHA Technology Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.62 to $25.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of PKSHA Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The market capitalisation of PKSHA Technology Inc is $705M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PKSHA Technology Inc is 5.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Earnings per share at PKSHA Technology Inc are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The net margin of PKSHA Technology Inc is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PKSHA Technology Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PKSHA Technology Inc is 5.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
The operating margin of PKSHA Technology Inc is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Revenue at PKSHA Technology Inc is growing +81.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PKSHA Technology Inc (PKSHF)?
Earnings per share at PKSHA Technology Inc are growing +34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Some data
Nov 2, 2026