Prosegur (PSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Prosegur stock €4.69, price €2.98, upside +57.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.18 – €3.30 · fair‑value band €3.52 – €6.92 · the €2.98 price screens below the €4.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. It operates through Security, Cash, Alarms, Cybersecurity, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments.
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The Security segment engages in guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions.
The Cash segment is involved in the transportation, storage, safekeeping, counting, and classification of coins and bank notes, deeds, securities, and other items that require special protection due to their economic value or risk; international payment services, online foreign currency, travel money home delivery, and local cash services; and correspondent banking and auxiliary payment services, inter alia, receipt and payment management, and bill payment services.
The Alarms segment engages in the installation and maintenance of home alarm systems, as well as the provision of alarm monitoring services.
The Cybersecurity segment provides managed detection and response, managed security, cyber intelligence, readteam, management, and risk and compliance services; integration of cybersecurity technology; and automation of processes for early detection of cyber-attacks on enterprises.
The AVOS segment offers business process outsourcing services to enhance operational management through redesign, automation, and digital transformation in financial and insurance companies.
The company operates in Austria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Denmark, Ecuador, El Salvador, Germany, Finland, France, Guatemala, Honduras, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay.
The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. is a subsidiary of Gubel, S.L.
Stock analysis
Prosegur (PSG) currently trades at €2.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.69, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €6.52 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €2.98 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.92, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.52 (bear) to €6.92 (bull), the price of €2.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Prosegur reported revenue of €4.9B in FY2025 versus €3.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €119M in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.6B Small · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) €0.2300 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 57%, PSG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.52Fair Value €4.69Bull€6.92
Price €2.98 · Upside +57.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0863 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 3.2% / 38.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 82% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (24 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Expansion into defense technology via AI, drones and robotics alliances forms the main strength, while high leverage substantially above equity and thin evidence of durable advantage remain the core limitations.
Main risk: High leverage with total debt substantially above equity forms the biggest risk, as it may constrain sustainable profitability amid the expansion beyond core guarding and cash services.
Prosegur is moving beyond traditional guarding and cash services into defense technology with a new unit targeting military contracts through AI, drones and robotics alliances. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet the shift into this grey area between private security and defense creates tension around delivery and margins. Will the expansion drive faster growth than it adds complexity to the core operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
P/B2.21× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prosegur Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PSG
Frequently asked questions
Is Prosegur (PSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.69 versus a price of €2.98, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PSG?
Our model-based fair value for Prosegur is €4.69 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.98.
What is the quality score of PSG?
Prosegur has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prosegur (PSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.69 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.52, optimistic scenario €6.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prosegur stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.69, about +57% upside versus a price of €2.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.52, optimistic scenario €6.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prosegur (PSG)?
Prosegur reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Prosegur pay a dividend?
Prosegur currently shows a dividend yield of 4.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Prosegur (PSG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Prosegur pays a dividend of €0.129 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Dec 2, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 56.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.52 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Prosegur (PSG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prosegur would have to grow free cash flow by +4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PSG use?
Our models discount Prosegur at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prosegur that is +4.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prosegur (PSG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prosegur grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prosegur (PSG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prosegur (+4.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prosegur (PSG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.24 %: that much free cash flow Prosegur produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prosegur (PSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prosegur it is €4.69 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €2.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Prosegur stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, PSG trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.98, fair value €4.69, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.69). For Prosegur the two are €1.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prosegur worth?
The market values Prosegur at about €1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €2.98; our models calculate a fair value of €4.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PSG?
Our models span a range for Prosegur: cautious scenario €3.52, base €4.69, optimistic €6.92 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €2.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PSG?
Prosegur trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.69 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 16.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PSG?
The PEG ratio of Prosegur is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Prosegur (PSG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Prosegur (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 1.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PSG from its 52-week high?
Prosegur trades at €2.98, about 10% below its 52-week high of €3.30 and 20% above the low of €2.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prosegur?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prosegur stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €2.98, calculated fair value €4.69 (+57%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PSG calculated?
We run Prosegur through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €4.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Prosegur currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prosegur (PSG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €2.98. Our model-based fair value is €4.69, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prosegur right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€3.52 to €6.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Prosegur
How large is the market capitalisation of Prosegur (PSG)?
The market capitalisation of Prosegur is €1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Prosegur (PSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prosegur is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prosegur (PSG)?
Earnings per share at Prosegur are €0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Prosegur (PSG)?
The dividend yield of Prosegur is 4.3% (payout 56.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Prosegur (PSG)?
The net margin of Prosegur is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prosegur (PSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prosegur is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prosegur (PSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prosegur is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prosegur (PSG)?
The operating margin of Prosegur is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prosegur (PSG)?
Revenue at Prosegur is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prosegur (PSG)?
Earnings per share at Prosegur are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Prosegur (PSG) carry?
The net debt of Prosegur is €1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026