Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Qantas Airways Ltd stock A$9.48, price A$9.45, upside +0.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.94 – A$11.56 · fair‑value band A$5.67 – A$15.71 · the A$9.45 price screens below the A$9.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments.
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It offers cargo, passengers, and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs. The company operates under the Qantas and Jetstar brands. Qantas Airways Limited was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.
Stock analysis
Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) currently trades at A$9.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$9.48, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$15.94 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$9.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$4.11, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$5.67 (bear) to A$15.71 (bull), the price of A$9.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Qantas Airways Ltd reported revenue of A$25.2B in FY2026 versus A$8.7B in FY2022, a compound +30.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$14.5B (≈ $10.0B) Large · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8500 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 113% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 0%, QAN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$5.67Fair Value A$9.48BullA$15.71
Price A$9.45 · Upside +0.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−36% → 8%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Modest brand and loyalty benefits provide the main strength while the lack of durable advantages and high financial leverage stand out as the central weakness.
Main risk: New airlines such as Koala Airlines with charter flights for international links, Zinc targeting Western Sydney and VietJet planning low-cost domestic flights could capture market share from Qantas and Jetstar or force lower fares on Australian trunk routes.
Bull case: Qantas could defend its position by deepening loyalty programme benefits, expanding ultra-long-haul international routes with its renewed fleet and selectively partnering with or acquiring elements of new entrants to maintain domestic scale.
Bear case: If the new entrants gain traction, Qantas domestic operations could face sustained price pressure and share loss, eroding the high margins that currently support the group amid fuel and labour costs.
Qantas is exploring outsourcing hundreds of back office roles to India while managing fuel cost pressures and labor tensions. The airline continues investing in fleet renewal to enable new ultra long haul routes. Will the cost savings from shifting work offshore outweigh risks to operational reliability and employee relations in Australia?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+0.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)112.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$9.48 versus a price of A$9.45, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of QAN?
Our model-based fair value for Qantas Airways Ltd is A$9.48 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$9.45.
What is the quality score of QAN?
Qantas Airways Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$9.48 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.67, optimistic scenario A$15.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Qantas Airways Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$9.48, about +0% upside versus a price of A$9.45 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$5.67, optimistic scenario A$15.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Qantas Airways Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$25.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Qantas Airways Ltd pay a dividend?
Qantas Airways Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Qantas Airways Ltd it is A$9.48 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of A$9.45. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Qantas Airways Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, QAN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$9.45, fair value A$9.48, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of QAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$9.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$9.48). For Qantas Airways Ltd the two are A$0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Qantas Airways Ltd worth?
The market values Qantas Airways Ltd at about A$14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is A$9.45; our models calculate a fair value of A$9.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about QAN?
Our models span a range for Qantas Airways Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.67, base A$9.48, optimistic A$15.71 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price A$9.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of QAN?
Qantas Airways Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$9.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 9.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of QAN?
The PEG ratio of Qantas Airways Ltd is 0.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Qantas Airways Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 112.7%, debt of 5.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is QAN from its 52-week high?
Qantas Airways Ltd trades at A$9.45, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$10.71 and 16% above the low of A$8.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$9.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Qantas Airways Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Qantas Airways Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price A$9.45, calculated fair value A$9.48 (+0%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of QAN calculated?
We run Qantas Airways Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$9.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Qantas Airways Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$9.45. Our model-based fair value is A$9.48, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Qantas Airways Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$5.67 to A$15.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) come from?
Earnings per share at Qantas Airways Ltd grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.4 %, EBIT margin +10.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Qantas Airways Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The market capitalisation of Qantas Airways Ltd is A$14.5B (≈ $10.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Qantas Airways Ltd is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Earnings per share at Qantas Airways Ltd are A$0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The dividend yield of Qantas Airways Ltd is 4.2% (payout 46.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The net margin of Qantas Airways Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Qantas Airways Ltd is 113% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Qantas Airways Ltd is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
The operating margin of Qantas Airways Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Revenue at Qantas Airways Ltd is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN)?
Earnings per share at Qantas Airways Ltd are growing −46.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) generate?
The free cash flow of Qantas Airways Ltd is −A$201M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) carry?
The net debt of Qantas Airways Ltd is A$7.1B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026