Regency Centers Corporation (REG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Regency Centers Corporation stock $38.70, price $74.84, that is 48.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.87 – $81.85 · fair‑value band $17.25 – $78.30 · the $74.84 price screens above the $38.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Regency Centers Corporation is a fully integrated real estate company and self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust that began its operations as a publicly-traded REIT in 1993.
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The Company conducts substantially all of its operations, and owns, directly or indirectly, substantially all of its assets.
Our business consists of acquiring, developing, owning, and operating income-producing retail real estate principally located in suburban trade areas with compelling demographics within the United States of America. Regency has been an S&P 500 Index member since 2017.
We are a preeminent national owner, operator, and developer of neighborhood and community shopping centers.
Our portfolio includes thriving properties merchandised with highly productive grocers, restaurants, service providers, and best-in-class retailers that connect with their neighborhoods, communities, and customers.
Regency Centers Corporation was incorporated in 1963 and is based in Jacksonville, Florida.
Stock analysis
Regency Centers Corporation (REG) currently trades at $74.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.70, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $52.04 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $74.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.12, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.25 (bear) to $78.30 (bull), the price of $74.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Regency Centers Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $527M in FY2025, compounding +9.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B Large · P/E ratio 26.3 · P/S ratio 8.00 · EPS (TTM) $2.79 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 30.6% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −48%, REG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.25Fair Value $38.70Bull$78.30
Price $74.84 · Downside -48.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleLisa PalmerPresident and CEO, Director26,000 shares at $76.75$2.0MFeb 10, 2026
SaleMichael J MasEVP and CFO15,000 shares at $76.85$1.2MFeb 10, 2026
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.2% vs 5.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.9% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale and lease structures deliver modest advantages via occupancy and stickiness, yet limited differentiation keeps pricing power and innovation weak.
Main risk: Shifts to e-commerce, home delivery via platforms like Instacart or Amazon Fresh, and autonomous systems could reduce visits to grocery-anchored centers, lowering occupancy and rental income.
Bull case: By emphasizing necessity-based and experiential retail while repurposing sites for last-mile uses, Regency could maintain high occupancy and attract new tenants despite delivery shifts.
Bear case: If grocery delivery and autonomous systems sharply reduce physical store visits, Regency might face sustained vacancies and weaker rent growth across its grocery-anchored portfolio.
Regency Centers keeps posting solid leasing results and advancing its development projects in growing suburban markets. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued, which creates tension with the steady operational momentum. Will the internal growth from high-occupancy centers and new builds outweigh any sector headwinds, or will external factors limit the upside?
Compare Regency Centers Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Below median
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)40.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Regency Centers Corporation (REG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.70 versus a price of $74.84, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REG?
Our model-based fair value for Regency Centers Corporation is $38.70 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.84.
What is the quality score of REG?
Regency Centers Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.70 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.25, optimistic scenario $78.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Regency Centers Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.70, about 48% lower versus a price of $74.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.25, optimistic scenario $78.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Regency Centers Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Regency Centers Corporation pay a dividend?
Regency Centers Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Regency Centers Corporation (REG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Regency Centers Corporation pays a dividend of $3.02 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1994. The payout ratio is 108% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.71 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Regency Centers Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of REG use?
Our models discount Regency Centers Corporation at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Regency Centers Corporation that is +22.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Regency Centers Corporation (REG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Regency Centers Corporation grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +22.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Regency Centers Corporation (REG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Regency Centers Corporation (+22.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.87 %: that much free cash flow Regency Centers Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Regency Centers Corporation it is $38.70 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $74.84. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Regency Centers Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, REG trades above its calculated fair value: price $74.84, fair value $38.70, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($74.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.70). For Regency Centers Corporation the two are $36.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Regency Centers Corporation worth?
The market values Regency Centers Corporation at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $74.84; our models calculate a fair value of $38.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REG?
Our models span a range for Regency Centers Corporation: cautious scenario $17.25, base $38.70, optimistic $78.30 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $74.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of REG?
Regency Centers Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.70 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 35.6. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 16.6.
What is the PEG ratio of REG?
The PEG ratio of Regency Centers Corporation is 2.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Regency Centers Corporation (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REG from its 52-week high?
Regency Centers Corporation trades at $74.84, about 9% below its 52-week high of $81.85 and 16% above the low of $64.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Regency Centers Corporation?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Regency Centers Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $74.84, calculated fair value $38.70 (−48%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REG calculated?
We run Regency Centers Corporation through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $38.70 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Regency Centers Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $74.84. Our model-based fair value is $38.70, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Regency Centers Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($17.25 to $78.30). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Regency Centers Corporation (REG) come from?
Earnings per share at Regency Centers Corporation grew +3.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Regency Centers Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The market capitalisation of Regency Centers Corporation is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Regency Centers Corporation is 8.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Earnings per share at Regency Centers Corporation are $2.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The dividend yield of Regency Centers Corporation is 4.0% (payout 108%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The net margin of Regency Centers Corporation is 30.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Regency Centers Corporation is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Regency Centers Corporation is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
The operating margin of Regency Centers Corporation is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Revenue at Regency Centers Corporation is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Regency Centers Corporation (REG)?
Earnings per share at Regency Centers Corporation are growing −29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Regency Centers Corporation (REG) carry?
The net debt of Regency Centers Corporation is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026