Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pernod Ricard S.A. stock €56.13, price €71.14, that is 21.1% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €58.04 – €192.52 · fair‑value band €46.42 – €93.84 · the €71.14 price screens above the €56.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Pernod Ricard SA produces and sells wines and spirits worldwide.
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The company offers whiskey, vodka, gin, rum, liqueur and bitters, champagne, tequila and mezcal, and aperitif under the brands 100 Pipers, Aberlour, Absolut, Absolut Elyx, Altos, ARARAT, Augier, Avion, Ballantine's, Becherovka, Beefeater, Blenders Pride, Brancott Estate, Campo Viejo, Ceder's, Chivas, Clan Campbell, Del Maguey, George Wyndham, Green Spot, Havana Club, Imperial, Imperial Blue, Italicus, J.P. Wiser's, Jacob's Creek, Jameson, Jefferson's, Kahlúa, Kenwood, KI NO BI, Lillet, Long John, L'Orbe, Lot No. 40, Malfy, Malibu, Kahlua, Martell, Method & Madness, Midleton Very Rare, Minttu, Monkey 47, Mumm, Olmeca, Ostoya, Passport Scotch, Pastis 51, Pernod, Perrier-Jouët, Plymouth Gin, Powers, Rabbit Hole, Ramazzotti, Redbreast, Ricard, Royal Salute, Royal Stag, Scapa, Seagram's Gin, Secret Speyside, Smooth Ambler, Something Special, Suze, The Glenlivet, TX, and Wyborowa.
It also provides non-alcoholic beverages under the brands Beefeater 0%, Ceder's, Suze Tonic 0%, Cinzano Spritz 0%, Pacific, Campo Viejo Sparkling 0%, and Jacob's Creek Unvined. Pernod Ricard SA was founded in 1805 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) currently trades at €71.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €56.13, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €100.32 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the €71.14 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €42.01, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €46.42 (bear) to €93.84 (bull), the price of €71.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Pernod Ricard S.A. reported revenue of €9.4B in FY2026 versus €10.7B in FY2022, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2026, compounding −11.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €18.0B Large · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) €4.75 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at −21%, RI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€46.42Fair Value €56.13Bull€93.84
Price €71.14 · Downside -21.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0247 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.9% vs 0.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 26%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.3% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate profitability from emerging-market momentum forms the main strength while thin evidence across moat factors such as retention, unique capabilities and pricing power marks the central weakness.
Main risk: Indian authorities could impose hundreds of millions in back taxes or restrictions on Pernod Ricard over import valuations and retailer deals, hitting its largest market by volume and squeezing margins there.
Bull case: Pernod Ricard could leverage its non-alc launches and India growth to offset regulatory pressures while adapting its portfolio to shifting occasions.
Bear case: Prolonged India disputes could force large payouts or market restrictions while faster shifts to no-alc and RTD options erode demand for its core alcoholic spirits.
Pernod Ricard delivered 19 percent organic sales growth in India during its first quarter while the United States and China markets declined sharply due to inventory adjustments and softer demand. The company is advancing preparatory work toward a potential IPO of its Indian operations and expects overall sales to remain broadly stable for the year. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the strength of its emerging-market momentum prove more lasting than the headwinds in its established markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 91 stocks
P/B1.16× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.91× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.1× · Cheaper than median
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Is Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €56.13 versus a price of €71.14, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RI?
Our model-based fair value for Pernod Ricard S.A. is €56.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €71.14.
What is the quality score of RI?
Pernod Ricard S.A. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €56.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €46.42, optimistic scenario €93.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pernod Ricard S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €56.13, about 21% lower versus a price of €71.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €46.42, optimistic scenario €93.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Pernod Ricard S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Pernod Ricard S.A. pay a dividend?
Pernod Ricard S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 6.61% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pernod Ricard S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RI use?
Our models discount Pernod Ricard S.A. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pernod Ricard S.A. that is +9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pernod Ricard S.A. grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pernod Ricard S.A. (+9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.61 %: that much free cash flow Pernod Ricard S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pernod Ricard S.A. it is €56.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €71.14. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pernod Ricard S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, RI trades above its calculated fair value: price €71.14, fair value €56.13, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€71.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€56.13). For Pernod Ricard S.A. the two are €15.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pernod Ricard S.A. worth?
The market values Pernod Ricard S.A. at about €18.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €71.14; our models calculate a fair value of €56.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RI?
Our models span a range for Pernod Ricard S.A.: cautious scenario €46.42, base €56.13, optimistic €93.84 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €71.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RI?
Pernod Ricard S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €56.13 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 12.2 (reported 15.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 22.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of RI?
The PEG ratio of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 1.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pernod Ricard S.A. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RI from its 52-week high?
Pernod Ricard S.A. trades at €71.14, about 18% below its 52-week high of €86.84 and 23% above the low of €58.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €56.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pernod Ricard S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pernod Ricard S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €71.14, calculated fair value €56.13 (−21%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RI calculated?
We run Pernod Ricard S.A. through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €56.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Pernod Ricard S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €71.14. Our model-based fair value is €56.13, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pernod Ricard S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€46.42 to €93.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) come from?
Earnings per share at Pernod Ricard S.A. grew +2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pernod Ricard S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The market capitalisation of Pernod Ricard S.A. is €18.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 1.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Earnings per share at Pernod Ricard S.A. are €4.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The dividend yield of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 6.6% (50% of it optionally in shares, payout 80.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 98.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The net margin of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
The operating margin of Pernod Ricard S.A. is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Revenue at Pernod Ricard S.A. is growing −13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI)?
Earnings per share at Pernod Ricard S.A. are growing −47.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI) carry?
The net debt of Pernod Ricard S.A. is €10.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026