K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of K+S Aktiengesellschaft stock €4.06, price €13.36, that is 69.6% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €9.91 – €31.06 · fair‑value band €2.82 – €5.74 · the €13.36 price screens above the €4.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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K+S, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a supplier of mineral products for the agricultural, industrial, pharma, consumer, and community sectors in Europe, Germany, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania.
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The company offers potassium chloride for crops, such as grain, corn, rice, soybeans, and sugar cane; fertilizer specialties that are used for crops with magnesium and sulfur requirements, including rapeseed, sugar beet, and potatoes, as well as for chloride-sensitive specialty crops such as citrus, grapes, coffee, almond trees, and vegetables; and water-soluble fertilizers for use in fertigation of fruit and vegetables under the KALISOP, KORN-KALI, ROLLKALI, PATENTKALI, ESTA KIESERIT, GRANUAID, MAGNESIA-KAINIT, SOLUMOP, SOLUSOP, SOLUCMS, EPSO TOP, EPSO MICROTOP, EPSO COMBITOP, EPSO PROFITOP, and EPSO BORTOP brands.
It also provides soil, fertigation, foliar fertilizers, natural rock salt, high-purity vaccum salt and mineral salt mixtures, potassium chloride, potassium sulphate, Epsom salt, minerals for pets and livestock, potassium, magnesium, salt, salt licks for farm and wild animals, sodium chloride, salt tablets, and vacuum salt granules under the k-DRILL, KaSa, SOLSEL, NUTRIKS, AXAL PRO, REGINET, Regesal, Marina, Marina Plus, Solea, and APISAL brands.
In addition, the company offers salts under the Cérébos brand; rock salt under the Solné mlýny Olomouc brand; sea salt under the Vatel and Salinas d'Algarve brands; Saltissimo brands; optimal solutions for their homes under the AXAL Pro and AXAL brand; rock and pink salts under the Saldoro brand; dishwasher salt under the Regesoft brand; and Coarse rock salt under the DI-MIX brand.
Further, the company provides waste management; and transportation and logistics services. Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Kassel, Germany.
Stock analysis
K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) currently trades at €13.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.06, 70% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €17.83 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €13.36 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €2.03, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €2.82 (bear) to €5.74 (bull), the price of €13.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
K+S Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €3.6B in FY2025 versus €3.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 2.4 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) €5.65 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 27.6% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −70%, SDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.2000 to €17.83). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear€2.82Fair Value €4.06Bull€5.74
Price €13.36 · Downside -69.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€1.81€2.68€4.3779
Growth DCF€1.90€2.76€4.3078
5Y Revenue Exit€1.28€1.94€2.8772
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€1.81€2.68€4.3779
5Y Revenue Exit€1.28€1.94€2.8772
10Y Revenue Exit€1.41€2.03€2.7367
Multiples
EV/Revenuen/a€0.2000>€0.800050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€13.31€17.83€26.6154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€1.90€2.76€4.3078
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−80.2% (2020) → −39.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.1% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (42 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Volume gains in potash and integration of the acquired salt business form the main strength, while negative profitability and margins remain the key weakness.
Main risk: The planned ramp-up of new global potash supply from 2027 threatens to pressure fertilizer prices and hit the company's margins.
K+S produces potash fertilizers for agriculture alongside salt products, with recent volume gains lifting its 2026 outlook. Yet new global potash supply is set to ramp up from 2027, potentially weighing on prices even as the firm integrates an acquired salt business. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the salt expansion offset the commodity headwinds or will oversupply dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−69.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets−13.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)77.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "K+S Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SDF.XETRA
Frequently asked questions
Is K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.06 versus a price of €13.36, about 70% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SDF?
Our model-based fair value for K+S Aktiengesellschaft is €4.06 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.36.
What is the quality score of SDF?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.06 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.82, optimistic scenario €5.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the K+S Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.06, about 70% lower versus a price of €13.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.82, optimistic scenario €5.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does K+S Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft pays a dividend of €0.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was May 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 1.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.26 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, K+S Aktiengesellschaft would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SDF use?
Our models discount K+S Aktiengesellschaft at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For K+S Aktiengesellschaft that is +36.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at K+S Aktiengesellschaft grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +36.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into K+S Aktiengesellschaft (+36.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow K+S Aktiengesellschaft produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For K+S Aktiengesellschaft it is €4.06 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €13.36. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is K+S Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SDF trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.36, fair value €4.06, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.06). For K+S Aktiengesellschaft the two are €9.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is K+S Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values K+S Aktiengesellschaft at about €2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €13.36; our models calculate a fair value of €4.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SDF?
Our models span a range for K+S Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €2.82, base €4.06, optimistic €5.74 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €13.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SDF?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.06 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.1 (the reported result was a loss). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 19.6. Other multiples: PEG 9.5, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of SDF?
The PEG ratio of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 9.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for K+S Aktiengesellschaft (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SDF from its 52-week high?
K+S Aktiengesellschaft trades at €13.36, about 27% below its 52-week high of €18.18 and 24% above the low of €10.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to K+S Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is K+S Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €13.36, calculated fair value €4.06 (−70%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SDF calculated?
We run K+S Aktiengesellschaft through 6 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €4.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. K+S Aktiengesellschaft itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €13.36. Our model-based fair value is €4.06, about 70% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with K+S Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€2.82 to €5.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of K+S Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The market capitalisation of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is €2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Earnings per share at K+S Aktiengesellschaft are €5.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The dividend yield of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 0.5% (payout 1.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The net margin of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 27.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
The operating margin of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is 77.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Revenue at K+S Aktiengesellschaft is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF)?
Earnings per share at K+S Aktiengesellschaft are growing +360% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF) carry?
The net debt of K+S Aktiengesellschaft is €332M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026