Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Secom Co Ltd stock $10.46, price $10.53, that is 0.7% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.07 – $10.94 · fair‑value band $7.63 – $14.23 · the $10.53 price screens above the $10.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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SECOM CO., LTD., together with its subsidiaries, provides security services in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Security Services, Fire Protection Services, Medical Services, Insurance Services, Geospatial Information Services, BPO and ICT Services, and Other Services segments.
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The Security Services segment offers static guard, armored car, merchandise, and other services, as well as online security systems.
The Fire Protection Services segment provides fire alarm systems, fire extinguishing systems, and maintenance services to office buildings, production facilities, tunnels, cultural properties, ships, and residences.
The Medical Services segment offers home nursing, pharmaceutical dispensing, home delivery services, health and preventative care services, and personal and outpatient care services.
This segment also operates the general hospital and residences for seniors; and sells medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. The Insurance Services Segment provides fire insurance, automobile insurance, and cancer treatment insurance services.
The Geospatial Information Services segment offers geospatial information services to national and local governments; private sector customers; and overseas government agencies.
The BPO and ICT Services segment provides contact centers and back-office support services, data center, disaster preparedness, information security, and cloud-based services, as well as SaaS solutions. The Other Services segment offers real estate leasing, construction, and installation services.
The company was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) currently trades at $10.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.46, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $15.79 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the $10.53 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.18, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.63 (bear) to $14.23 (bull), the price of $10.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Secom Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥119B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $17.0B Large · P/E ratio 23.9 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) $0.4400 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −1%, SOMLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.63Fair Value $10.46Bull$14.23
Price $10.53 · Downside -0.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2688 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$8.75$12.31$18.0080
Growth DCF$8.98$12.30$17.3979
Owner Earnings$8.07$11.26$16.3776
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$8.75$12.31$18.0080
Owner Earnings$8.07$11.26$16.3776
5Y Revenue Exit$8.21$11.53$15.6573
5Y EBITDA Exit$12.42$19.10$26.6875
5Y P/E Exit$10.22$15.14$20.1171
10Y Revenue Exit$8.14$11.25$15.1767
10Y EBITDA Exit$11.09$16.62$23.6568
10Y P/E Exit$9.65$13.81$18.6064
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$3.25$8.18$10.6265
PEG = 1.0$1.51$2.15$2.8057
EPV$6.90$7.79$8.6074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$1.75$3.60$6.7864
DDM Multi-Stage$1.75$2.75$3.9566
Multiples
P/E Multiple$10.04$13.39$16.7463
P/S Multiple$6.10$8.13$10.1658
P/B Multiple$21.49$28.66$35.8255
EV/EBIT$14.11$18.19$22.2766
EV/EBITDA$15.68$20.28$24.8867
EV/Revenue$8.07$10.72$13.3754
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.1800$0.2700$0.330055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$8.98$12.30$17.3979
Rev-Margin DCF$8.21$11.58$15.2573
Economic Profit
Residual Income$4.69$5.17$6.4876
ROIC Compounder$7.14$8.53$10.1972
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$7.60$10.86$14.1267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.2% vs −1.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws stable cash flows from recurring domestic security contracts yet remains limited by international revenue that has shown almost no progress in years.
Main risk: Pressure to accelerate overseas expansion through consolidation risks diverting focus from the stable domestic contract base and hitting predictable cash generation.
SECOM builds most of its earnings on recurring security contracts that deliver stable cash flows at home. An activist investor is now pressing the company to raise its stakes in major overseas affiliates and accelerate international revenue that has barely moved in years. Will management continue with its measured organic approach or shift to consolidation for quicker scale abroad?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Secom Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOMLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.46 versus a price of $10.53, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SOMLY?
Our model-based fair value for Secom Co Ltd is $10.46 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.53.
What is the quality score of SOMLY?
Secom Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.46 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.63, optimistic scenario $14.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Secom Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.46, about 1% lower versus a price of $10.53 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.63, optimistic scenario $14.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Secom Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Secom Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Secom Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Secom Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 32.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.54 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Secom Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SOMLY use?
Our models discount Secom Co Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Secom Co Ltd that is +0.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Secom Co Ltd grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Secom Co Ltd (+0.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.14 %: that much free cash flow Secom Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Secom Co Ltd it is $10.46 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $10.53. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Secom Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SOMLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.53, fair value $10.46, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOMLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.46). For Secom Co Ltd the two are $0.0750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Secom Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Secom Co Ltd at about $17.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $10.53; our models calculate a fair value of $10.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOMLY?
Our models span a range for Secom Co Ltd: cautious scenario $7.63, base $10.46, optimistic $14.23 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $10.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SOMLY?
Secom Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SOMLY?
The PEG ratio of Secom Co Ltd is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Secom Co Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOMLY from its 52-week high?
Secom Co Ltd trades at $10.53, about 4% below its 52-week high of $10.94 and 32% above the low of $7.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Secom Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Secom Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $10.53, calculated fair value $10.46 (−1%), Quality Score 52/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOMLY calculated?
We run Secom Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Secom Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $10.53. Our model-based fair value is $10.46, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Secom Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($7.63 to $14.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Secom Co Ltd grew +2.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Secom Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The market capitalisation of Secom Co Ltd is $17.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Secom Co Ltd is 2.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Earnings per share at Secom Co Ltd are $0.4400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The dividend yield of Secom Co Ltd is 1.5% (payout 35.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The net margin of Secom Co Ltd is 9.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Secom Co Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Secom Co Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
The operating margin of Secom Co Ltd is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Revenue at Secom Co Ltd is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY)?
Earnings per share at Secom Co Ltd are growing −0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Secom Co Ltd (SOMLY) hold?
Secom Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥471B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 9, 2026