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Talius Group Ltd. (TAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Talius Group Ltd. stock A$0.04, price A$0.06, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology AU · ISIN AU0000281172

TG Talius Group Ltd. logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Talius Group Ltd.

TAL · AU
Expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 35% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 54/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +21.1 %/yr in AUD)
Revenue last quarter 24% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0360 · Overvalued
Loss-making · -26.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/9)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2500 A$0.0400 Fair Value A$0.0360 Jun 2020 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0400 – A$0.2500 · fair‑value band A$0.0302 – A$0.0360 · the A$0.0550 price screens above the A$0.0360 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Talius Group Limited provides various technology enabled care solutions to the aged and disability sectors in the retirement living, residential aged care, home, and community setting verticals in Australia. The company offers Talius Smart Care, a software as a service data analytics platform.

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It provides residential aged care, home care, and safety products. It also offers IOT, NLP - virtual assistant, natural language processing " automated routine calls following a care pathway for escalations to a nurse, interactive TV, AI and machine learning, and big data.

The company was formerly known as HSC Technology Group Ltd and changed its name to Talius Group Limited in May 2023. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Eagle Farm, Australia.

Stock analysis

Talius Group Ltd. (TAL) currently trades at A$0.0550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0360, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0302 (bear) to A$0.0360 (bull), the price of A$0.0550 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Talius Group Ltd. reported revenue of A$8.3M in FY2025 versus A$3.6M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$18.9M (≈ $13.0M) Micro · P/S ratio 2.88 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −17.7% · Return on equity −34.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −23.3% · Revenue (TTM) A$6.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −35%, TAL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0302 Fair Value A$0.0360 Bull A$0.0360
Price A$0.0550 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 53

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 59
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 43
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 11
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 15
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 37
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−73.3% (2020) → −17.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TAL screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −34.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −18.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −26.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −23.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −23.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.87× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $530.61 $583.67 +10% vs TAL
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $118.84 $130.72 +10% vs TAL
Oracle Corporation ORCL $116.10 $111.97 −4% vs TAL
NetApp, Inc NTAP $169.19 $156.80 −7% vs TAL
Block, Inc XYZ $85.48 $76.43 −11% vs TAL
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $450.46 $288.23 −36% vs TAL
Zscaler, Inc ZS $197.66 $101.45 −49% vs TAL
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $160.38 $42.20 −74% vs TAL
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $216.90 $37.97 −82% vs TAL
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $313.84 $39.54 −87% vs TAL

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Talius Group Ltd.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Talius Group Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TAL

Frequently asked questions

Is Talius Group Ltd. (TAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0360 versus a price of A$0.0550, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAL?
Our model-based fair value for Talius Group Ltd. is A$0.0360 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0550.
What is the quality score of TAL?
Talius Group Ltd. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0360 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0302, optimistic scenario A$0.0360. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Talius Group Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0360, about 35% lower versus a price of A$0.0550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0302, optimistic scenario A$0.0360. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Talius Group Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$6.6M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Talius Group Ltd. it is A$0.0360 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.0550. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Talius Group Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TAL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0550, fair value A$0.0360, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0360). For Talius Group Ltd. the two are A$0.0190 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Talius Group Ltd. worth?
The market values Talius Group Ltd. at about A$18.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0360 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAL?
Our models span a range for Talius Group Ltd.: cautious scenario A$0.0302, base A$0.0360, optimistic A$0.0360 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.0550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Talius Group Ltd. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −34.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAL from its 52-week high?
Talius Group Ltd. trades at A$0.0550, about 35% below its 52-week high of A$0.0850 and 31% above the low of A$0.0420 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0360 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Talius Group Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Talius Group Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.0550, calculated fair value A$0.0360 (−35%), Quality Score 54/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAL calculated?
We run Talius Group Ltd. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0360 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Talius Group Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$0.0550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0360, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Talius Group Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0360). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Talius Group Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The market capitalisation of Talius Group Ltd. is A$18.9M (≈ $13.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Talius Group Ltd. is 2.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Earnings per share at Talius Group Ltd. are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The net margin of Talius Group Ltd. is −17.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Talius Group Ltd. is −34.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Talius Group Ltd. is −29.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
The operating margin of Talius Group Ltd. is −23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Talius Group Ltd. (TAL)?
Revenue at Talius Group Ltd. is growing −23.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Talius Group Ltd. (TAL) generate?
The free cash flow of Talius Group Ltd. is −A$3.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Talius Group Ltd. (TAL) hold?
Talius Group Ltd. holds more cash than debt, A$4.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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