The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The TJX Companies Inc stock $85.31, price $145, that is 41.1% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.81 – $167.88 · fair‑value band $62.33 – $108.29 · the $144.76 price screens above the $85.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International.
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The company provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise.
It also offers home decor, furniture, and seasonal home merchandise. The company sells its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) currently trades at $144.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.31, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $101.05 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $144.76 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $29.97, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $62.33 (bear) to $108.29 (bull), the price of $144.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The TJX Companies Inc reported revenue of $60.4B in FY2026 versus $48.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.5B in FY2026, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $163B Large · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $5.40 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 62.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −41%, TJX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$62.33Fair Value $85.31Bull$108.29
Price $144.76 · Downside -41.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.74 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $27.7M and none bought.
SaleJackwyn NemerovDirector957 shares at $168.60$161,350Jun 11, 2026
SalePeter BenjaminSEVP, Group President10,926 shares at $165.00$1.8MJun 10, 2026
SaleCarol MeyrowitzExecutive Chairman, Director55,624 shares at $163.65$9.1MJun 9, 2026
SaleErnie HerrmanCEO & President, Director3× since Nov 20, 2025: 151,914 shares, avg. $155.83$23.7MJun 5, 2026
SaleJohn KlingerSEVP, CFO6,235 shares at $160.77$1.0MJun 5, 2026
SaleKenneth CanestrariSEVP - Group President31,447 shares at $157.50$5.0MJun 3, 2026
SaleAmy B LaneDirector500 shares at $151.40$75,700Nov 21, 2025
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.9% vs 11.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.5% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from organization capital in off-price sourcing but remains limited by weak innovation and insider signals.
Main risk: Ross Stores could take customers from TJX through stronger comps and value positioning, pressuring margins and domestic store traffic.
Bull case: TJX could leverage its larger scale and opportunistic sourcing network to outpace Ross and Burlington while using any tariff refunds to fund efficient global expansion.
Bear case: If Ross continues to capture share and legal claims over tariffs escalate, TJX might face sustained pressure on US margins and slower domestic growth despite international efforts.
TJX relies on opportunistic buying from vendors' excess inventory to deliver the deep discounts that drive its treasure-hunt appeal across Marmaxx and HomeGoods. Rapid store growth toward a much larger global footprint tests whether that flexible supply chain can keep delivering fresh bargains at scale. Will wider reach strengthen the model or expose limits in sourcing enough quality merchandise without thinning the mix?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−41.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)62.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.8× · Pricier than median
P/B15.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.61× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow33.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.57× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 52
FUTURE (revenue growth)27· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The TJX Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TJX
Frequently asked questions
Is The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $85.31 versus a price of $144.76, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TJX?
Our model-based fair value for The TJX Companies Inc is $85.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $144.76.
What is the quality score of TJX?
The TJX Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $85.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $62.33, optimistic scenario $108.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The TJX Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $85.31, about 41% lower versus a price of $144.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $62.33, optimistic scenario $108.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The TJX Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $62.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does The TJX Companies Inc pay a dividend?
The TJX Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The TJX Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TJX use?
Our models discount The TJX Companies Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The TJX Companies Inc that is +14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The TJX Companies Inc grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The TJX Companies Inc (+14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.02 %: that much free cash flow The TJX Companies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The TJX Companies Inc it is $85.31 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $144.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The TJX Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TJX trades above its calculated fair value: price $144.76, fair value $85.31, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TJX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($144.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($85.31). For The TJX Companies Inc the two are $59.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The TJX Companies Inc worth?
The market values The TJX Companies Inc at about $163B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $144.76; our models calculate a fair value of $85.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TJX?
Our models span a range for The TJX Companies Inc: cautious scenario $62.33, base $85.31, optimistic $108.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $144.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TJX?
The TJX Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $85.31 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 26.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 16.0, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 17.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TJX?
The PEG ratio of The TJX Companies Inc is 2.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Balance-sheet figures for The TJX Companies Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 62.2%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TJX from its 52-week high?
The TJX Companies Inc trades at $144.76, about 14% below its 52-week high of $167.88 and 18% above the low of $122.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $85.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The TJX Companies Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, Trent Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The TJX Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $144.76, calculated fair value $85.31 (−41%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TJX calculated?
We run The TJX Companies Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $85.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. The TJX Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $144.76. Our model-based fair value is $85.31, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The TJX Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) come from?
Earnings per share at The TJX Companies Inc grew +11.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The TJX Companies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The market capitalisation of The TJX Companies Inc is $163B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The TJX Companies Inc is 2.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Earnings per share at The TJX Companies Inc are $5.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The dividend yield of The TJX Companies Inc is 1.3% (payout 33.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The net margin of The TJX Companies Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The TJX Companies Inc is 62.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The TJX Companies Inc is 18.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The operating margin of The TJX Companies Inc is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Revenue at The TJX Companies Inc is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
Earnings per share at The TJX Companies Inc are growing +23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) carry?
The net debt of The TJX Companies Inc is $7.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026