Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp stock $28.47, price $18.36, upside +55.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.47 – $18.36 · fair‑value band $12.69 – $38.69 · the $18.36 price screens below the $28.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Urban Development, Strategic Investment, Property Management & Operation, and Real Estate Agents.
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The Urban Development segment develops and operates office buildings, commercial facilities, condominiums, and other facilities.
The Strategic Investment segment develops, leases, and operates renewable energy power generation facilities and logistics facilities, as well as engages in REIT and fund management business.
The Property Management & Operation segment engages in providing management services and renovation work for condominiums and buildings; sales and operation of membership resort hotels, urban hotels, golf courses, ski resorts, senior housing, and other; environmental greening business; new businesses based on the internal entrepreneurship program, and other services.
The Real-Estate Agents segment is involved in Real estate brokerage, purchase, and resale business; sales agency business; and managing and operating rental housing and student apartments. Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) currently trades at $18.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.47, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.95 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the $18.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.46, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.69 (bear) to $38.69 (bull), the price of $18.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2026 versus ¥989B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥103B in FY2026, compounding +30.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.66 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 55%, TKFOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.69Fair Value $28.47Bull$38.69
Price $18.36 · Upside +55.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.1% vs 11.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.0% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (4 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited moat in the competitive real estate sector contrasts with record profits from core property operations, while high leverage poses ongoing pressure on margins.
Main risk: High leverage relative to equity could pressure long-term margins across the diversified real estate and energy operations.
Tokyu Fudosan reorganized its renewable energy operations in late September while its real estate segments posted record profits the prior year. Our models see the shares as undervalued yet the tension is clear: will the energy platform deliver fresh earnings momentum or mainly dilute focus on the core property business? Does the restructuring strengthen long-term returns or add complexity without enough payoff?
Compare Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+55.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.47 versus a price of $18.36, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TKFOY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is $28.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.36.
What is the quality score of TKFOY?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.69, optimistic scenario $38.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.47, about +55% upside versus a price of $18.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.69, optimistic scenario $38.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.2T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +34.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKFOY use?
Our models discount Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR that is +34.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +34.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (+34.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.81 %: that much free cash flow Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR it is $28.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $18.36. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TKFOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.36, fair value $28.47, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKFOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.47). For Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR the two are $10.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR worth?
The market values Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $18.36; our models calculate a fair value of $28.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKFOY?
Our models span a range for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR: cautious scenario $12.69, base $28.47, optimistic $38.69 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $18.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKFOY?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 1.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKFOY from its 52-week high?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR trades at $18.36, at its 52-week high of $18.36 and 51% above the low of $12.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $18.36, calculated fair value $28.47 (+55%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKFOY calculated?
We run Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $18.36. Our model-based fair value is $28.47, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (48/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($12.69 to $38.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR grew +10.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR are $1.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The dividend yield of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 3.6% (payout 40.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The net margin of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 7.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
The operating margin of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Revenue at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is growing −0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR are growing −16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp (TKFOY) carry?
The net debt of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is ¥1.6T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 56.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026