Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Real Estate · US · Market cap $4.5B · ISIN US8891131067
At a glance
TFTokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADRTKFOY · US
Price$16.61
Fair Value$30.02
Upside+80.7%
Quality47/100
Below-average quality, trading 45% below our fair value of $30.02.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is $30.02 per share against a price of $16.61, so the fair value sits 81% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·1.78% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $15.22 to $65.87
!Weak on balance sheet: 20 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $15.22 to $65.87
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $29.10 to $30.02 (+3.2%) since Aug 13, 2026.
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What matters now
The model range is unusually wide ($15.22 to $65.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.65 – $16.61 · fair‑value band $15.22 – $65.87 · the $16.61 price screens below the $30.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY) currently trades at $16.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.02, implying the stock looks roughly 44.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR generated revenue of ¥1.2T at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at ¥1.6T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $15.22 (bear) to $65.87 (bull), the price of $16.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 81%, TKFOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio15.1
P/S ratio1.17P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$1.10price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1
Dividend yield1.8%payout 26.9%
Net margin7.8%FY2026
Return on equity11.2%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.1%avg 5y
Operating margin15.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)¥1.2TTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+6.9%3y avg +9.5%
EPS growth (YoY)+14.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow¥29.1BFY2026
Net debt¥1.6TFY2026 · ≈ 56.5 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 45
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Profitability30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Urban Development, Strategic Investment, Property Management & Operation, and Real Estate Agents.
Full company description
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Urban Development, Strategic Investment, Property Management & Operation, and Real Estate Agents. The Urban Development segment develops and operates office buildings, commercial facilities, condominiums, and other facilities. The Strategic Investment segment develops, leases, and operates renewable energy power generation facilities and logistics facilities, as well as engages in REIT and fund management business. The Property Management & Operation segment engages in providing management services and renovation work for condominiums and buildings; sales and operation of membership resort hotels, urban hotels, golf courses, ski resorts, senior housing, and other; environmental greening business; new businesses based on the internal entrepreneurship program, and other services. The Real-Estate Agents segment is involved in Real estate brokerage, purchase, and resale business; sales agency business; and managing and operating rental housing and student apartments. Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2026 versus ¥989B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥103B in FY2026, compounding +30.7%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥1.3T
Latest YoY
+14.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+24.1%
Dividend yield1.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 24.1% vs 10Y 11.8%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.2% (2021) → 13.4% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop57% (2009) · in JPY
Revenue+7.5%/yr
FY22¥989B
FY23¥1.0T
FY24¥1.1T
FY25¥1.2T
FY26¥1.3T
Net income+30.7%/yr
FY22¥35.1B
FY23¥48.2B
FY24¥68.5B
FY25¥77.6B
FY26¥103B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026)+10.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share+2.7 %
of which total revenue +4.5 % · buybacks/dilution −1.7 %
EBIT margin+4.1 %
Tax rate+0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+3.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+75% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.1× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+24.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+7.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price3.20 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 52
FUTURE35· sector 29
PAST45· sector 18
HEALTH20· sector 76
DIVIDEND36· sector 58
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.02 versus a price of $16.61, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TKFOY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is $30.02 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.61.
What is the quality score of TKFOY?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.02 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.22, optimistic scenario $65.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.02, about +81% upside versus a price of $16.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.22, optimistic scenario $65.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY)?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.2T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TKFOY?
The net profit margin of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR is about 7.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKFOY use?
Our models discount Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR it is $30.02 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $16.61. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, TKFOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.61, fair value $30.02, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKFOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.02). For Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR the two are $13.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR worth?
The market values Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $16.61; our models calculate a fair value of $30.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKFOY?
Our models span a range for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR: cautious scenario $15.22, base $30.02, optimistic $65.87 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $16.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKFOY?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.02 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (TKFOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 1.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKFOY from its 52-week high?
Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR trades at $16.61, about 30% below its 52-week high of $12.73 and 36% above the low of $12.18 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Corem Property Group, Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $16.61, calculated fair value $30.02 (+81%), Quality Score 47/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKFOY calculated?
We run Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $30.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corp ADR
TKFOY · US