The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Lottery Corporation Ltd stock A$2.08, price A$5.47, that is 62.0% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range A$3.50 – A$5.88 · fair‑value band A$1.34 – A$3.00 · the A$5.47 price screens above the A$2.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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The Lottery Corporation Limited engages in provision of gaming services in Australia. It operates lottery and Keno games under The Lott and Keno brand names. The company was founded in 1881 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) currently trades at A$5.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.08, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$2.81 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$5.47 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.07, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.34 (bear) to A$3.00 (bull), the price of A$5.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
The Lottery Corporation Ltd reported revenue of A$3.6B in FY2026 versus A$3.3B in FY2022, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$285M in FY2026, compounding −4.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$12.2B (≈ $8.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 42.9 · P/S ratio 3.41 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1276 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 97.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −62%, TLC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.34Fair Value A$2.08BullA$3.00
Price A$5.47 · Downside -62.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.7% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (25 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: High ROE stands out as a strength, yet thin evidence overall and elevated leverage relative to equity mark the main weak points in durable advantage.
Main risk: Elevated leverage relative to equity forms the biggest risk and could hit refinancing flexibility or stability through jackpot cycles in the lottery business.
Bull case: By enhancing its digital platforms and using data and AI for personalised experiences, the company could retain and grow its customer base despite rival offerings.
Bear case: If such platforms gain significant market share, TLC might see sustained erosion in digital lottery participation and associated revenues.
The Lottery Corporation is preparing for a finance leadership change, with its CFO set to depart in July 2027 after giving nearly nine months' notice for an orderly handover. This follows his role in the post-demerger debt raising and Victorian licence extension. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the long transition period preserve stability through jackpot cycles, or does it signal potential disruption ahead?
Compare The Lottery Corporation Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−62.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)97.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity9.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B46.21× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Lottery Corporation Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLC
Frequently asked questions
Is The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.08 versus a price of A$5.47, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLC?
Our model-based fair value for The Lottery Corporation Ltd is A$2.08 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.47.
What is the quality score of TLC?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.08 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.34, optimistic scenario A$3.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Lottery Corporation Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.08, about 62% lower versus a price of A$5.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.34, optimistic scenario A$3.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does The Lottery Corporation Ltd pay a dividend?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.165 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 26, 2026. The payout ratio is 105% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 127%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.87 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Lottery Corporation Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLC use?
Our models discount The Lottery Corporation Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Lottery Corporation Ltd that is +20.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Lottery Corporation Ltd grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Lottery Corporation Ltd (+20.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.60 %: that much free cash flow The Lottery Corporation Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Lottery Corporation Ltd it is A$2.08 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of A$5.47. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is The Lottery Corporation Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, TLC trades above its calculated fair value: price A$5.47, fair value A$2.08, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.08). For The Lottery Corporation Ltd the two are A$3.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Lottery Corporation Ltd worth?
The market values The Lottery Corporation Ltd at about A$12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is A$5.47; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLC?
Our models span a range for The Lottery Corporation Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.34, base A$2.08, optimistic A$3.00 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price A$5.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLC?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.9 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.08 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 35.5 (reported 42.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2022 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 32.5. Other multiples: P/B 46.2, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 21.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Lottery Corporation Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 97.2%, debt of 9.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLC from its 52-week high?
The Lottery Corporation Ltd trades at A$5.47, about 5% below its 52-week high of A$5.76 and 16% above the low of A$4.72 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Lottery Corporation Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, Lottomatica Group, Light & Wonder, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Lottery Corporation Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price A$5.47, calculated fair value A$2.08 (−62%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLC calculated?
We run The Lottery Corporation Ltd through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.08 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. The Lottery Corporation Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$5.47. Our model-based fair value is A$2.08, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Lottery Corporation Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$1.34 to A$3.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of The Lottery Corporation Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The market capitalisation of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is A$12.2B (≈ $8.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 3.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Earnings per share at The Lottery Corporation Ltd are A$0.1276 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The dividend yield of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 3.0% (payout 105%, on adjusted earnings, reported 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The net margin of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 97.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
The operating margin of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Revenue at The Lottery Corporation Ltd is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC)?
Earnings per share at The Lottery Corporation Ltd are growing −41.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Lottery Corporation Ltd (TLC) carry?
The net debt of The Lottery Corporation Ltd is A$1.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026