Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Upbound Group Inc. stock $27.64, price $24.24, upside +14.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.77 – $49.11 · fair‑value band $14.50 – $34.96 · the $24.24 price screens below the $27.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico.
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The company also provides furniture, including mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories.
In addition, it offers merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for traditional financing, the lease-to-own transaction through staffed or unstaffed kiosks located in third-party retailer's locations, and other virtual options.
Further, the company provides various financial health products and tools through mobile and web applications.
It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchising location under the Rent-A-Centre and RimTyme trade names; and company-owned stores, franchise stores, and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com, getitnowstores.com, and homechoicestores.com.
The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Plano, Texas.
Stock analysis
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) currently trades at $24.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.64, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.74 per share, and 12 of the 22 models we run sit above the $24.24 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.35, and 10 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.50 (bear) to $34.96 (bull), the price of $24.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Upbound Group Inc. reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $73.2M in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B Small · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) $1.90 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 14%, UPBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.50Fair Value $27.64Bull$34.96
Price $24.24 · Upside +14.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.29 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.3M, most recently on Nov 3, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $188,500. Buying cluster
BuyFahmi KaramChief Executive Officer, Director4,407 shares at $22.71$100,083Nov 3, 2026
BuyRebecca WootersEVP, Chief Growth Officer4,325 shares at $23.00$99,475Nov 3, 2026
BuyJeffrey J BrownDirector17,645 shares at $22.67$400,012Nov 2, 2026
BuyMolly LangensteinDirector2,186 shares at $22.91$50,081Nov 2, 2026
BuyBalaji KumarEVP, Chief Technology Officer2,200 shares at $22.77$50,094Nov 2, 2026
BuyGlenn P MarinoDirector17,400 shares at $22.61$393,414Nov 2, 2026
BuyHalim KhouriEVP, Chief Financial Officer11,000 shares at $22.78$250,580Nov 2, 2026
SaleAnthony J BlasquezEVP-RAC10,000 shares at $18.85$188,500Aug 21, 2026
Plan buyJeffrey J BrownDirector4× since Jan 6, 2026: 9,890 shares, avg. $18.46$182,563Oct 27, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.6% vs −3.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+14.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.26× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.04× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Upbound Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UPBD
Frequently asked questions
Is Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.64 versus a price of $24.24, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UPBD?
Our model-based fair value for Upbound Group Inc. is $27.64 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.24.
What is the quality score of UPBD?
Upbound Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.64 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.50, optimistic scenario $34.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Upbound Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.64, about +14% upside versus a price of $24.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.50, optimistic scenario $34.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Upbound Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Upbound Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Upbound Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.61% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Upbound Group Inc. pays a dividend of $0.39 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2019. The payout ratio is 20.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.50 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Upbound Group Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UPBD use?
Our models discount Upbound Group Inc. at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Upbound Group Inc. that is +7.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Upbound Group Inc. grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Upbound Group Inc. (+7.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.82 %: that much free cash flow Upbound Group Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Upbound Group Inc. it is $27.64 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $24.24. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Upbound Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, UPBD trades below its calculated fair value: price $24.24, fair value $27.64, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.64). For Upbound Group Inc. the two are $3.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Upbound Group Inc. worth?
The market values Upbound Group Inc. at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $24.24; our models calculate a fair value of $27.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPBD?
Our models span a range for Upbound Group Inc.: cautious scenario $14.50, base $27.64, optimistic $34.96 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $24.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UPBD?
Upbound Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.64 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 18.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of UPBD?
The PEG ratio of Upbound Group Inc. is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Upbound Group Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 2.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPBD from its 52-week high?
Upbound Group Inc. trades at $24.24, about 3% below its 52-week high of $24.88 and 61% above the low of $15.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Upbound Group Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Upbound Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $24.24, calculated fair value $27.64 (+14%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPBD calculated?
We run Upbound Group Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $27.64 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Upbound Group Inc. currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.24. Our model-based fair value is $27.64, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Upbound Group Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($14.50 to $34.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Upbound Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The market capitalisation of Upbound Group Inc. is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Upbound Group Inc. is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Earnings per share at Upbound Group Inc. are $1.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The dividend yield of Upbound Group Inc. is 1.6% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The net margin of Upbound Group Inc. is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Upbound Group Inc. is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Upbound Group Inc. is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
The operating margin of Upbound Group Inc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Revenue at Upbound Group Inc. is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)?
Earnings per share at Upbound Group Inc. are growing +164% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) carry?
The net debt of Upbound Group Inc. is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026