Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xponential Fitness Inc stock $3.56, price $4.65, that is 23.4% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.65 – $33.08 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $9.21 · the $4.65 price screens above the $3.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness brands franchisor in North America.
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The company's brands portfolio consist of Club Pilates, a Pilates facility franchisor; StretchLab, a fitness concept offering one-on-one assisted stretching services; YogaSix, a yoga concept; Pure Barre, a total body workout concept that uses the ballet barre to perform small isometric movements; and BFT, a high-intensity interval training concept that combines functional, high-energy strength, cardio, and conditioning-based classes to achieve the unique health of its members.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock analysis
Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) currently trades at $4.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.56, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.98 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the $4.65 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.19, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.07 (bear) to $9.21 (bull), the price of $4.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xponential Fitness Inc reported revenue of $315M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $230M Micro · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $−1.21 · Net margin −10.7% · Return on equity −28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.2% · Revenue (TTM) $272M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −23%, XPOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.07Fair Value $3.56Bull$9.21
Price $4.65 · Downside -23.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$2.79$11.43$24.0573
Growth DCF$2.44$9.70$19.4472
5Y Revenue Exitn/a$2.18$7.9769
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$2.79$11.43$24.0573
5Y Revenue Exitn/a$2.18$7.9769
10Y Revenue Exitn/a$4.19$10.8464
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$2.44$9.70$19.4472
Rev-Margin DCFn/a$2.26$8.3469
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyTravis W. Cocke10% owner200,005 shares at $4.82$964,078May 20, 2026
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.3% (2019) → −16.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.4% a year for the price and −2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−9.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−12.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−21.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.85× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 52
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.56 versus a price of $4.65, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPOF?
Our model-based fair value for Xponential Fitness Inc is $3.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.65.
What is the quality score of XPOF?
Xponential Fitness Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.07, optimistic scenario $9.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xponential Fitness Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.56, about 23% lower versus a price of $4.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.07, optimistic scenario $9.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Xponential Fitness Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $272M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Xponential Fitness Inc pay a dividend?
Xponential Fitness Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xponential Fitness Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.2 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPOF use?
Our models discount Xponential Fitness Inc at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xponential Fitness Inc that is +23.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xponential Fitness Inc grew +24.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xponential Fitness Inc (+23.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.66 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Xponential Fitness Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xponential Fitness Inc it is $3.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.65. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 2 families (DCF Models, Growth DCF).
Is Xponential Fitness Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, XPOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.65, fair value $3.56, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.56). For Xponential Fitness Inc the two are $1.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xponential Fitness Inc worth?
The market values Xponential Fitness Inc at about $230M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.65; our models calculate a fair value of $3.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPOF?
Our models span a range for Xponential Fitness Inc: cautious scenario $2.07, base $3.56, optimistic $9.21 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xponential Fitness Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPOF from its 52-week high?
Xponential Fitness Inc trades at $4.65, about 48% below its 52-week high of $9.00 and 27% above the low of $3.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xponential Fitness Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xponential Fitness Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.65, calculated fair value $3.56 (−23%), Quality Score 49/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPOF calculated?
We run Xponential Fitness Inc through 5 models from 2 families: DCF Models, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Xponential Fitness Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.65. Our model-based fair value is $3.56, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xponential Fitness Inc right now?
Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.07 to $9.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Xponential Fitness Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The market capitalisation of Xponential Fitness Inc is $230M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xponential Fitness Inc is 0.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Earnings per share at Xponential Fitness Inc are $−1.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The net margin of Xponential Fitness Inc is −10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xponential Fitness Inc is −28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xponential Fitness Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The operating margin of Xponential Fitness Inc is 25.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Revenue at Xponential Fitness Inc is growing −21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Earnings per share at Xponential Fitness Inc are growing −81.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) carry?
The net debt of Xponential Fitness Inc is $491M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026