Xponential Fitness, Inc (XPOF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $335M
Xponential Fitness, Inc
XPOF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −25.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 189% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.62 to $14.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.26 – $33.08 · fair‑value band $3.62 – $14.52 · the $5.03 price screens below the $14.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Xponential Fitness, Inc (XPOF) currently trades at $5.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.52, implying the stock looks roughly 188.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Xponential Fitness, Inc generated revenue of $299M at a net margin of -12.6%. Revenue declined 21.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -28.8%. Net debt stands at $491M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.62 (bear case) to $14.52 (bull case); at $5.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 189%, XPOF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($15.09) versus Dividend Discount ($1.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness brands franchisor in North America. The company's brands portfolio consist of Club Pilates, a Pilates facility franchisor; StretchLab, a fitness concept offering one-on-one assisted stretching services; YogaSix, a yoga concept; Pure Barre, a total body workout concept that …
Full company description
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness brands franchisor in North America. The company's brands portfolio consist of Club Pilates, a Pilates facility franchisor; StretchLab, a fitness concept offering one-on-one assisted stretching services; YogaSix, a yoga concept; Pure Barre, a total body workout concept that uses the ballet barre to perform small isometric movements; and BFT, a high-intensity interval training concept that combines functional, high-energy strength, cardio, and conditioning-based classes to achieve the unique health of its members. Xponential Fitness, Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xponential Fitness, Inc reported revenue of $315M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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