Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Xponential Fitness Inc $5.56, price $3.70, upside +50.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Xponential Fitness Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.65 – $33.08 · fair‑value band $4.26 – $13.08 · the $3.70 price screens below the $5.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Xponential Fitness in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Xponential Fitness is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness brands franchisor in North America.
Show more
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness brands franchisor in North America. The company's brands portfolio consist of Club Pilates, a Pilates facility franchisor; StretchLab, a fitness concept offering one-on-one assisted stretching services; YogaSix, a yoga concept; Pure Barre, a total body workout concept that uses the ballet barre to perform small isometric movements; and BFT, a high-intensity interval training concept that combines functional, high-energy strength, cardio, and conditioning-based classes to achieve the unique health of its members. Xponential Fitness, Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock analysis
Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) currently trades at $3.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.56, implying the stock looks roughly 33.5% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.11 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the $3.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.74, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.26 (bear) to $13.08 (bull), the price of $3.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xponential Fitness Inc reported revenue of $315M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $335M · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) $−1.39 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −10.7% · Return on equity −28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 24.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 50%, XPOF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.26Fair Value $5.56Bull $13.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.3% (2019) → −16.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and −1.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+50% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.12× · Pricier than median
P/FCF13.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 57
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.56 versus a price of $3.70, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XPOF?
Our model-based fair value for Xponential Fitness Inc is $5.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.70.
What is the quality score of XPOF?
Xponential Fitness Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $13.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xponential Fitness Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.56, about +50% upside versus a price of $3.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $13.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Xponential Fitness Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $299M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Xponential Fitness Inc pay a dividend?
Xponential Fitness Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xponential Fitness Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPOF use?
Our models discount Xponential Fitness Inc at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xponential Fitness Inc that is +17.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xponential Fitness Inc grew +24.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xponential Fitness Inc (+17.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.21 %: that much free cash flow Xponential Fitness Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xponential Fitness Inc it is $5.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.70. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xponential Fitness Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XPOF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.70, fair value $5.56, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.56). For Xponential Fitness Inc the two are $1.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xponential Fitness Inc worth?
The market values Xponential Fitness Inc at about $335M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.70; our models calculate a fair value of $5.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPOF?
Our models span a range for Xponential Fitness Inc: cautious scenario $4.26, base $5.56, optimistic $13.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xponential Fitness Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPOF from its 52-week high?
Xponential Fitness Inc trades at $3.70, about 59% below its 52-week high of $9.00 and 1% above the low of $3.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xponential Fitness Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xponential Fitness Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.70, calculated fair value $5.56 (+50%), Quality Score 44/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPOF calculated?
We run Xponential Fitness Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xponential Fitness Inc currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.70. Our model-based fair value is $5.56, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xponential Fitness Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($4.26 to $13.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Xponential Fitness Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The market capitalisation of Xponential Fitness Inc is $335M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xponential Fitness Inc is 1.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Earnings per share at Xponential Fitness Inc are $−1.39. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The dividend yield of Xponential Fitness Inc is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The net margin of Xponential Fitness Inc is −10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xponential Fitness Inc is −28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xponential Fitness Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
The operating margin of Xponential Fitness Inc is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Revenue at Xponential Fitness Inc is growing −21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF)?
Earnings per share at Xponential Fitness Inc are growing −81.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) carry?
The net debt of Xponential Fitness Inc is $491M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Xponential Fitness Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Xponential Fitness Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026