XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XPS Pensions Group PLC stock £3.91, price £3.48, upside +12.4%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.00 – £3.98 · fair‑value band £2.73 – £5.08 · the £3.48 price screens below the £3.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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XPS Pensions Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides employee benefit consultancy and related business services in the United Kingdom.
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It offers convent and pension advisory; investment and insurance consulting; DB master trust schemes; and self-invested personal pension and SSAS pension services.
Further, it provides pension administer services, such as payroll, record keeping, calculations, communications, scheme accounting, and scam identification and protection, and management consultancy services, as well as de-risking projects, GMP equalization, trustee secretarial, and data audits and cleansing services.
In addition, it provides XPS Arena, a digital learning platform; technologies; and trackers. The company was formerly known as Xafinity Plc and changed its name to XPS Pensions Group Plc in May 2018. XPS Pensions Group plc was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Reading, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) currently trades at £3.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.91, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £4.54 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the £3.48 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £1.66, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £2.73 (bear) to £5.08 (bull), the price of £3.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
XPS Pensions Group PLC reported revenue of £263M in FY2026 versus £139M in FY2022, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was £26.6M in FY2026, compounding +29.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £747M Small · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) £0.1200 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, XPS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£2.73Fair Value £3.91Bull£5.08
Price £3.48 · Upside +12.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.7% vs 21.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.7% · Above median
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)22.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.27× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.84× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.1× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XPS Pensions Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPS
Frequently asked questions
Is XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.91 versus a price of £3.48, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XPS?
Our model-based fair value for XPS Pensions Group PLC is £3.91 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.48.
What is the quality score of XPS?
XPS Pensions Group PLC has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.91 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.73, optimistic scenario £5.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XPS Pensions Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.91, about +12% upside versus a price of £3.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.73, optimistic scenario £5.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
XPS Pensions Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £263M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does XPS Pensions Group PLC pay a dividend?
XPS Pensions Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
XPS Pensions Group PLC pays a dividend of £0.132 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 110% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.85 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XPS Pensions Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPS use?
Our models discount XPS Pensions Group PLC at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XPS Pensions Group PLC that is +6.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XPS Pensions Group PLC grew +15.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XPS Pensions Group PLC (+6.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.62 %: that much free cash flow XPS Pensions Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XPS Pensions Group PLC it is £3.91 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of £3.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is XPS Pensions Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, XPS trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.48, fair value £3.91, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.91). For XPS Pensions Group PLC the two are £0.4305 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XPS Pensions Group PLC worth?
The market values XPS Pensions Group PLC at about £747M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is £3.48; our models calculate a fair value of £3.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPS?
Our models span a range for XPS Pensions Group PLC: cautious scenario £2.73, base £3.91, optimistic £5.08 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price £3.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XPS?
XPS Pensions Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Balance-sheet figures for XPS Pensions Group PLC (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPS from its 52-week high?
XPS Pensions Group PLC trades at £3.48, about 3% below its 52-week high of £3.58 and 23% above the low of £2.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XPS Pensions Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, Frontdoor, Inc, H&R Block, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XPS Pensions Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price £3.48, calculated fair value £3.91 (+12%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPS calculated?
We run XPS Pensions Group PLC through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £3.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. XPS Pensions Group PLC currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £3.48. Our model-based fair value is £3.91, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XPS Pensions Group PLC right now?
A fairly wide model range (£2.73 to £5.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) come from?
Earnings per share at XPS Pensions Group PLC grew +28.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of XPS Pensions Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The market capitalisation of XPS Pensions Group PLC is £747M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 2.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Earnings per share at XPS Pensions Group PLC are £0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The dividend yield of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 3.8% (payout 110%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The net margin of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 10.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
The operating margin of XPS Pensions Group PLC is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Revenue at XPS Pensions Group PLC is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS)?
Earnings per share at XPS Pensions Group PLC are growing +6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does XPS Pensions Group PLC (XPS) carry?
The net debt of XPS Pensions Group PLC is £61.2M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026