XPS Pensions Group (XPS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 647M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from £1.93 to £1.69 (−12.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +10.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.9515 – £3.77 · fair‑value band £1.27 – £2.11 · the £3.26 price screens above the £1.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
XPS Pensions Group (XPS) currently trades at £3.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.69, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XPS Pensions Group generated revenue of £247M at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at £61.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.27 (bear case) to £2.11 (bull case); at £3.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -48%, XPS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (£3.51) versus Asset-Based (£0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XPS Pensions Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides employee benefit consultancy and related business services in the United Kingdom. It offers convent and pension advisory; investment and insurance consulting; DB master trust schemes; and self-invested personal pension and SSAS pension services.
Full company description
XPS Pensions Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides employee benefit consultancy and related business services in the United Kingdom. It offers convent and pension advisory; investment and insurance consulting; DB master trust schemes; and self-invested personal pension and SSAS pension services. Further, it provides pension administer services, such as payroll, record keeping, calculations, communications, scheme accounting, and scam identification and protection, and management consultancy services, as well as de-risking projects, GMP equalization, trustee secretarial, and data audits and cleansing services. In addition, it provides XPS Arena, a digital learning platform; technologies; and trackers. The company was formerly known as Xafinity Plc and changed its name to XPS Pensions Group Plc in May 2018. XPS Pensions Group plc was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Reading, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
XPS Pensions Group reported revenue of £263M in FY2026 versus £139M in FY2022, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was £26.6M in FY2026, compounding +29.6%/yr from FY2022.
XPS screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Rollins, Inc →
Peer Group
Personal Services · 42 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Personal Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins, Inc ROL | $44.47 | $21.11 | -53% |
| Service Corporation SCI | $78.72 | $39.27 | -50% |
| Frontdoor, Inc FTDR | $75.69 | $75.55 | -0% |
| H&R Block, Inc HRB | $41.14 | $78.83 | +92% |
| Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM | $73.99 | $62.41 | -16% |
| Fu Shou Yuan International Group 1448 | HK$2.64 | HK$4.20 | +59% |
| Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 | 48.60 TWD | 31.33 TWD | -36% |
| Carriage Services, Inc CSV | $38.29 | $26.63 | -30% |
| Musti Group MUSTI | €14.35 | €14.08 | -2% |
| Uniao Pet Participacoes S.A AUAU3 | R$3.08 | R$1.37 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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