Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zumiez Inc stock $19.20, price $14.04, upside +36.8%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.58 – $54.63 · fair‑value band $14.40 – $24.00 · the $14.04 price screens below the $19.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Zumiez Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women in the United States, Australia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It offers hardgoods, including skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment.
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The company operates stores under the names of Zumiez, Blue Tomato, and Fast Times through zumiez.com, zumiez.ca, blue-tomato.com, and fasttimes.com.au e-commerce websites. Zumiez Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Lynnwood, Washington.
Stock analysis
Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) currently trades at $14.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.20, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $37.94 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $14.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.64, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $14.40 (bear) to $24.00 (bull), the price of $14.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Zumiez Inc reported revenue of $929M in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was $13.4M in FY2026, compounding −42.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $221M Micro · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.6900 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 37%, ZUMZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.40Fair Value $19.20Bull$24.00
Price $14.04 · Upside +36.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4802 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $134,000, on Sep 18, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $112,987.
BuyAdam Christopher EllisPresident International10,000 shares at $13.40$134,000Sep 18, 2026
SaleLiliana Gil VallettaDirector3× since Jun 9, 2026: 6,000 shares, avg. $18.83$112,987Jun 15, 2026
SaleChris K. VisserChief Legal Officer & Sec.2× since Dec 9, 2025: 20,744 shares, avg. $25.94$538,169Apr 1, 2026
SaleAdam Christopher EllisPresident International7,319 shares at $28.41$207,933Dec 22, 2025
SaleTravis SmithDirector2× since Dec 9, 2025: 18,524 shares, avg. $29.24$541,608Dec 19, 2025
SaleGuy Matthew HarklessDirector2,500 shares at $29.19$72,975Dec 11, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleCarmen BauzaDirector7,000 shares at $29.69$207,830Dec 8, 2025
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−20.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.3% vs −2.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zumiez Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZUMZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.20 versus a price of $14.04, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZUMZ?
Our model-based fair value for Zumiez Inc is $19.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.04.
What is the quality score of ZUMZ?
Zumiez Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.40, optimistic scenario $24.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zumiez Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.20, about +37% upside versus a price of $14.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.40, optimistic scenario $24.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Zumiez Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $933M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zumiez Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZUMZ use?
Our models discount Zumiez Inc at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zumiez Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zumiez Inc grew -1.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zumiez Inc (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.62 %: that much free cash flow Zumiez Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zumiez Inc it is $19.20 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $14.04. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Zumiez Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ZUMZ trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.04, fair value $19.20, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZUMZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.20). For Zumiez Inc the two are $5.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zumiez Inc worth?
The market values Zumiez Inc at about $221M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $14.04; our models calculate a fair value of $19.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZUMZ?
Our models span a range for Zumiez Inc: cautious scenario $14.40, base $19.20, optimistic $24.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $14.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZUMZ?
Zumiez Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.20 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 18.0 (reported for FY2026: 16.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2026 ex one-offs: 16.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ZUMZ?
The PEG ratio of Zumiez Inc is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zumiez Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 4.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZUMZ from its 52-week high?
Zumiez Inc trades at $14.04, about 54% below its 52-week high of $30.62 and 6% above the low of $13.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zumiez Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zumiez Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $14.04, calculated fair value $19.20 (+37%), Quality Score 70/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZUMZ calculated?
We run Zumiez Inc through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Zumiez Inc currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.04. Our model-based fair value is $19.20, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zumiez Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Zumiez Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The market capitalisation of Zumiez Inc is $221M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zumiez Inc is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Earnings per share at Zumiez Inc are $0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The net margin of Zumiez Inc is 1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zumiez Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zumiez Inc is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
The operating margin of Zumiez Inc is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Revenue at Zumiez Inc is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)?
Earnings per share at Zumiez Inc are growing +49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) carry?
The net debt of Zumiez Inc is $71.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026