Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $322M
Zumiez Inc
ZUMZ · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +13.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($10.11 to $18.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.58 – $54.63 · fair‑value band $10.11 – $18.49 · the $20.11 price screens above the $13.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) currently trades at $20.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.94, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zumiez Inc generated revenue of $938M at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at $71.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.11 (bear case) to $18.49 (bull case); at $20.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -31%, ZUMZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($39.08) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zumiez Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women in the United States, Australia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It offers hardgoods, including skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment.
Full company description
Zumiez Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women in the United States, Australia, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It offers hardgoods, including skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment. The company operates stores under the names of Zumiez, Blue Tomato, and Fast Times through zumiez.com, zumiez.ca, blue-tomato.com, and fasttimes.com.au e-commerce websites. Zumiez Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Lynnwood, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Zumiez Inc reported revenue of $929M in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was $13.4M in FY2026, compounding −42.1%/yr from FY2022.
ZUMZ screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can Zumiez Margin Expansion Continue as Private Label Scales Higher?
- Can Zumiez Sustain Comparable Sales Growth Amid Consumer Headwinds?
- Zumiez Stock Dips 11% on Wider Loss in Q1 & Soft Q2 Outlook
- Zumiez (ZUMZ) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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