Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co (000860) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 7.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥50.05 to ¥9.27 (−81.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +9.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.76 – ¥62.99 · fair‑value band ¥7.87 – ¥10.68 · the ¥10.98 price screens above the ¥9.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co (000860) currently trades at ¥10.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.27, implying the stock looks roughly 15.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co generated revenue of 6.4B CNY at a net margin of -5.0%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.87 (bear case) to ¥10.68 (bull case); at ¥10.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -16%, 000860 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥12.86) versus Asset-Based (¥6.10). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the brewing, production, and sale of liquor products under the Niulanshan and Ningcheng brands in China. It operates through Liquor Business, Slaughtering Business, Farming Business, and Other Operations segments.
Full company description
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the brewing, production, and sale of liquor products under the Niulanshan and Ningcheng brands in China. It operates through Liquor Business, Slaughtering Business, Farming Business, and Other Operations segments. It is also involved in the breeding and farming of pigs; provision of commercial pigs under the Xiaodian brand, and fresh and cooked food products under the Pengcheng brand; livestock, poultry, and meat slaughtering; meat and meat by-product processing; animal husbandry; feed processing; paper product processing and production; planting; wholesale and retail of pre-packaged and bulk food; cooperation with farmers to raise pics and provide supporting services; research and development of pig breeding technology; technology development; technical consultation, promotion, and services; and general freight activities. Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.,Ltd was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co reported revenue of ¥7.2B in FY2025 versus ¥14.9B in FY2021, a compound −16.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥152M in FY2025.
000860 screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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