Baowu Magnesium Technology Co (002182) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 13.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥15.96 to ¥5.58 (−65.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −11.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥1.12 to ¥5.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.86 – ¥22.85 · fair‑value band ¥1.12 – ¥5.58 · the ¥12.70 price screens above the ¥5.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Baowu Magnesium Technology Co (002182) currently trades at ¥12.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.58, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Baowu Magnesium Technology Co generated revenue of 10.0B CNY at a net margin of -0.4%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.1%. Net debt stands at 6.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.12 (bear case) to ¥5.58 (bull case); at ¥12.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -56%, 002182 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.56) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.73). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd. engages in mining and non-ferrous metal smelting, and processing in China and internationally. The company's products include magnesium alloy, aluminum alloy, metal strontium, magnesium particles, master alloy, die castings, etc. Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd.
Full company description
Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd. engages in mining and non-ferrous metal smelting, and processing in China and internationally. The company's products include magnesium alloy, aluminum alloy, metal strontium, magnesium particles, master alloy, die castings, etc. Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Baowu Magnesium Technology Co., Ltd. in September 2023. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Baowu Magnesium Technology Co reported revenue of ¥9.9B in FY2025 versus ¥8.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥18.5M in FY2025.
002182 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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