Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co (002478) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 6.3B CNY

A solid business, screening 21% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• Our model range runs from ¥5.72 (bear) to ¥9.52 (bull), base ¥7.62. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 60/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.29 – ¥13.87 · fair‑value band ¥5.72 – ¥9.52 · the ¥6.32 price screens below the ¥7.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co (002478) currently trades at ¥6.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.62, implying the stock looks roughly 20.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co generated revenue of 6.0B CNY at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.72 (bear case) to ¥9.52 (bull case); at ¥6.32, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at 21%, 002478 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.31) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells steel tubes in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Full company description

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells steel tubes in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers OCTG products for petroleum industry, including connection tubing and casings, coupling stocks, perforation gun carrier pipes, petroleum tool pipes, drill and green pipes, and slotted pipes; boiler tubes for power generation, such as boiler tubes, water heater, boilers, and U bended tubes; steel tubes for auto industry comprising automobile precision tubes, piping for hydraulic cylinders, and axel tubes; petrochemical tubes, steel tubes for low temperature resistance, and high pressure fertilizer tubes; and steel tubes for engineering machinery industry, such as mechanical steel pipes, boom pipes, and piping for hydraulic cylinders. It also provides line pipes, geological drilling pipes, core barrels, rope corning drill pipe materials, gas cylinder pipes, and accumulator tubes, as well as steel pipes for marine engineering, structural purpose, and fluid transmission. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Changzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co reported revenue of ¥5.9B in FY2025 versus ¥4.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥482M in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.