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Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd ¥1.85, price ¥6.74, upside -72.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE1000018Q8

HT Some data Sep 23, 2026

Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd

002627 · SHE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ¥1.85 · Strongly overvalued (−73%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +2.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.74% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 7 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥10.01 ¥4.00 Fair Value ¥1.85 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.00 – ¥10.01 · fair‑value band ¥1.39 – ¥2.04 · the ¥6.74 price screens above the ¥1.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides road passenger transport services in China.

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Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides road passenger transport services in China. The company offers passenger travel services comprising road passenger transport, bus station services, and taxi passenger transport; vehicle extended services consisting of vehicle refueling, gas filling, charging, motor vehicle safety, and environmental protection testing, etc.; and commercial logistics services, including property leasing, multimodal transport, warehousing, loading and unloading services, and supermarket sales. It also provides tourism services, such as tourism transportation services comprising direct and chartered bus services to tourist attractions; sightseeing cruise; tourism port; travel agency; and tourist scenic spot operation services. In addition, the company offers vehicle detection; passenger terminal; oil sales; port operations; water transport; and property management services. As of December 31, 2024, its fleet consisted of 577 passenger vehicles, including urban and rural buses. The company was formerly known as Hubei Yichang Transportation Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. in July 2021. Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Yichang, China.

Stock analysis

Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) currently trades at ¥6.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.85, implying the stock looks roughly 264.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.85 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥6.74 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.7300, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥1.39 (bear) to ¥2.04 (bull), the price of ¥6.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 757M CNY in FY2025 versus 2.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −23.2%/yr. Reported net income was 63.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 4.9B CNY (≈ $729M) · P/E ratio 84.3 · P/S ratio 7.12 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0800 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −73%, 002627 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥1.39 Fair Value ¥1.85 Bull ¥2.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0219 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥2.84 ¥2.70 ¥2.00 76
EPV ¥1.54 ¥1.67 ¥1.77 74
ROIC Compounder ¥1.54 ¥1.67 ¥1.77 72
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.6000 ¥0.7300 ¥0.8200 67
EPV ¥1.54 ¥1.67 ¥1.77 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.8300 ¥0.8900 ¥0.9900 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.8300 ¥0.9800 ¥1.19 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.39 ¥1.85 ¥2.32 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.12 ¥1.50 ¥1.87 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.12 ¥1.50 ¥1.87 55
EV/EBIT ¥2.70 ¥3.39 ¥4.08 66
EV/EBITDA ¥4.00 ¥5.12 ¥6.24 67
EV/Revenue ¥1.94 ¥2.50 ¥3.06 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.12 ¥2.85 ¥4.25 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.84 ¥2.70 ¥2.00 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.54 ¥1.67 ¥1.77 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.9800 ¥1.40 ¥1.82 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

002627 screens 264% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −73% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 84.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.37× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 19.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)35 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)7 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)15 · sector 60

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $95.87 $107.84 +12%
FedEx Corporation FDX $295.94 $347.68 +17%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €58.62 €136.05 +132%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,212 kr 712.57 −41%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 231.20 CHF 147.92 −36%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $237.41 $133.80 −44%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.94 ¥106.04 +243%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $149.56 $86.56 −42%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $187.51 $115.95 −38%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$155.70 HK$260.98 +68%

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Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥1.85 −264%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002627

Frequently asked questions

Is Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.85 versus a price of ¥6.74, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002627?
Our model-based fair value for Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is ¥1.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.74.
What is the quality score of 002627?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.39, optimistic scenario ¥2.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.85, about −73% upside versus a price of ¥6.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.39, optimistic scenario ¥2.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 767M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd it is ¥1.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥6.74. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 002627 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.74, fair value ¥1.85, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002627?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.85). For Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd the two are ¥4.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd at about 4.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.74; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002627?
Our models span a range for Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.39, base ¥1.85, optimistic ¥2.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥6.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002627?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 84.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 19.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002627 from its 52-week high?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd trades at ¥6.74, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥10.01 and 21% above the low of ¥5.58 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥6.74, calculated fair value ¥1.85 (−73%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002627 calculated?
We run Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥6.74. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.85, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) come from?
Earnings per share at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd grew −2.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.4 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The market capitalisation of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 4.9B CNY (≈ $729M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 7.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Earnings per share at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd are ¥0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 84.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The dividend yield of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 62.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The net margin of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
The operating margin of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Revenue at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627)?
Earnings per share at Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd are growing −14.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) generate?
The free cash flow of Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd is −101M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd (002627) hold?
Hubeiyichang Transportation Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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