Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group (002627) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥3.00 to ¥1.85 (−38.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.00 – ¥10.01 · fair‑value band ¥1.39 – ¥2.32 · the ¥6.49 price screens above the ¥1.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group (002627) currently trades at ¥6.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.85, implying the stock looks roughly 71.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group generated revenue of 767M CNY at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.39 (bear case) to ¥2.32 (bull case); at ¥6.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -71%, 002627 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥2.85) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.7300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides road passenger transport services in China.
Full company description
Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides road passenger transport services in China. The company offers passenger travel services comprising road passenger transport, bus station services, and taxi passenger transport; vehicle extended services consisting of vehicle refueling, gas filling, charging, motor vehicle safety, and environmental protection testing, etc.; and commercial logistics services, including property leasing, multimodal transport, warehousing, loading and unloading services, and supermarket sales. It also provides tourism services, such as tourism transportation services comprising direct and chartered bus services to tourist attractions; sightseeing cruise; tourism port; travel agency; and tourist scenic spot operation services. In addition, the company offers vehicle detection; passenger terminal; oil sales; port operations; water transport; and property management services. As of December 31, 2024, its fleet consisted of 577 passenger vehicles, including urban and rural buses. The company was formerly known as Hubei Yichang Transportation Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. in July 2021. Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Yichang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group reported revenue of ¥757M in FY2025 versus ¥2.2B in FY2021, a compound −23.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥63.9M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
002627 screens 71% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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