Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd ¥6.51, price ¥25.65, upside -74.6%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.06 – ¥37.84 · fair‑value band ¥5.03 – ¥8.39 · the ¥25.65 price screens above the ¥6.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, sells, and services thermoplastic elastomer, modified plastic, master batch, and other products in China and internationally.
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Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, sells, and services thermoplastic elastomer, modified plastic, master batch, and other products in China and internationally. The company offers TPV/TPE; thermoplastic polyurethanes; modified PP, modified ABS, modified PBT, modified nylon, alloy materials, non-woven melt blown materials, masterbatch, and other special engineering plastics; and bio-based materials, biodegradable materials, and melt-blown materials. It serves automotive, home appliances, electronic and electrical, rail transportation, aerospace, medical and health care, constructional engineering, sanitary ware, sports equipment, industrial products, civilian products, packaging, catering, and other fields. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Longkou, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) currently trades at ¥25.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.51, implying the stock looks roughly 294.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥18.88 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥25.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.71, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥5.03 (bear) to ¥8.39 (bull), the price of ¥25.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was 189M CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 17.1B CNY (≈ $2.6B) · P/E ratio 45.8 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5600 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −75%, 002838 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.03Fair Value ¥6.51Bull ¥8.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3219 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 5%
Compare Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 713 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)45.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.64× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA36.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002838
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.51 versus a price of ¥25.65, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002838?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is ¥6.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.65.
What is the quality score of 002838?
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.03, optimistic scenario ¥8.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.51, about −75% upside versus a price of ¥25.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.03, optimistic scenario ¥8.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd it is ¥6.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥25.65. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002838 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.65, fair value ¥6.51, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002838?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.51). For Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd the two are ¥19.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd at about 17.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.65; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002838?
Our models span a range for Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.03, base ¥6.51, optimistic ¥8.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥25.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002838?
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 36.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002838 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd trades at ¥25.65, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥37.84 and 26% above the low of ¥20.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥25.65, calculated fair value ¥6.51 (−75%), Quality Score 39/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002838 calculated?
We run Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥25.65. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.51, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) come from?
Earnings per share at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd grew +7.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.6 %, EBIT margin −11.4 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 17.1B CNY (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd are ¥0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 0.5% (payout 21.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The net margin of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
The operating margin of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Revenue at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is growing +33.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is −212M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd is 952M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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