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Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd ¥17.14, price ¥10.71, upside +60.0%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100004CL0

AX Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd

003038 · SHE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥17.14 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)
!Quality 19/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +45.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 10 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥52.32 ¥9.52 Fair Value ¥17.14 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.52 – ¥52.32 · fair‑value band ¥9.18 – ¥24.33 · the ¥10.71 price screens below the ¥17.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells aluminum alloy profiles.

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Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells aluminum alloy profiles. The company provides photovoltaic modules, such as stand base, structural guide rail, triangular chain, connector, tongs, and frames; front and rear bumper, fender assembly, aluminum alloy container, runner and end plate, motor aluminum shell, battery frame, energy storage battery tray, spout structure, and power battery tray; rail transit parts; and architectural products comprising curtain wall, sunroom, railing, and door and window series. It also offers new EV aluminum parts, solar aluminum frames and mounting systems, recycled aluminum, and other aluminum products. Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co., Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is based in Tianchang, China.

Stock analysis

Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038) currently trades at ¥10.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.14, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥18.29 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the ¥10.71 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.75, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥9.18 (bear) to ¥24.33 (bull), the price of ¥10.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was −192M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.1B CNY (≈ $466M) · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.9600 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin −2.3% · Return on equity −8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin −0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 60%, 003038 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥9.18 Fair Value ¥17.14 Bull ¥24.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA ¥15.24 ¥18.29 ¥21.34 67
Gordon GGM ¥5.34 ¥9.63 ¥13.25 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.34 ¥8.79 ¥10.28 65
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.34 ¥9.63 ¥13.25 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.34 ¥8.79 ¥10.28 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥15.24 ¥18.29 ¥21.34 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.78 ¥7.75 ¥11.57 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 19/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 48
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.4% (2020) → −0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.29× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.17× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)10 · sector 26
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥17.10 ¥43.06 +152%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$20.82 HK$56.98 +174%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹1,004 ₹1,026 +2%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.27 ¥12.58 +36%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 82.96 kr 58.10 −30%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.60 MYR 8.36 MYR +10%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥26.95 ¥38.55 +43%
Alcoa Corporation AA $44.71 $40.18 −10%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥26.38 ¥32.01 +21%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.64 ¥34.83 +176%

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Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥17.14 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/003038

Frequently asked questions

Is Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.14 versus a price of ¥10.71, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 003038?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is ¥17.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.71.
What is the quality score of 003038?
Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.18, optimistic scenario ¥24.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.14, about +60% upside versus a price of ¥10.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.18, optimistic scenario ¥24.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd it is ¥17.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥10.71. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 003038 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥10.71, fair value ¥17.14, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 003038?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.14). For Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd the two are ¥6.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd worth?
The market values Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd at about 3.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.71; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 003038?
Our models span a range for Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.18, base ¥17.14, optimistic ¥24.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥10.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.1%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 003038 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd trades at ¥10.71, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥19.73 and 13% above the low of ¥9.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥10.71, calculated fair value ¥17.14 (+60%), Quality Score 19/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 003038 calculated?
We run Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥10.71. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.14, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (19/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (¥9.18 to ¥24.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is 3.1B CNY (≈ $466M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is 0.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd are ¥−0.9600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is 5.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The net margin of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is −2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
The operating margin of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Revenue at Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd are growing −98.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038) generate?
The free cash flow of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is −817M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd (003038) carry?
The net debt of Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co Ltd is 4.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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