Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lotte Chilsung Beverage KRW 106,882, price KRW 95,800, upside +11.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 94,000 KRW – 180,687 KRW · fair‑value band 80,161 KRW – 133,602 KRW · the 95,800 KRW price screens below the 106,882 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells soft drinks, liquor, fruit/vegetable drinks, grain drinks, and food and other beverages in Korea, the Philippines, Pakistan, the United States, Japan, China, Myanmar, Singapore, and Russia. It operates through Beverage and Liquor segments.
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Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells soft drinks, liquor, fruit/vegetable drinks, grain drinks, and food and other beverages in Korea, the Philippines, Pakistan, the United States, Japan, China, Myanmar, Singapore, and Russia. It operates through Beverage and Liquor segments. The company offers beverages, including carbonated drinks, juices, coffee, tea, functional drinks, spring water, and other products; and liquor products, including soju, beer, spirits, fruit liquor, cheongju, wine, and cooking wine products. It sells its products under the Chilsung Cider, Pepsi-Cola, Del Monte, Milkis, Cantata, HOT6ix, DAILY-C, ICIS, Let's Be, 2% Refreshing near water, Chum-Churum, Kloud, Chungha, Majuang, and Scotch Blue brand names. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) currently trades at 95,800 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 106,882 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 195,675 KRW per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the 95,800 KRW price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 28,349 KRW, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 80,161 KRW (bear) to 133,602 KRW (bull), the price of 95,800 KRW sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lotte Chilsung Beverage reported revenue of 4.0T KRW in FY2025 versus 2.5T KRW in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 47.2B KRW in FY2025, compounding −23.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0T KRW (≈ $710M) · P/S ratio 0.25 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 5.0% · Revenue (TTM) 4.0T KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 12%, 005300 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 80,161 KRWFair Value 106,882 KRWBull 133,602 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.4% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 106,882 KRW versus a price of 95,800 KRW, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 005300?
Our model-based fair value for Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 106,882 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 95,800 KRW.
What is the quality score of 005300?
Lotte Chilsung Beverage has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 106,882 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 80,161 KRW, optimistic scenario 133,602 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lotte Chilsung Beverage stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 106,882 KRW, about +12% upside versus a price of 95,800 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 80,161 KRW, optimistic scenario 133,602 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Lotte Chilsung Beverage reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.0T KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lotte Chilsung Beverage pay a dividend?
Lotte Chilsung Beverage currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lotte Chilsung Beverage would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 005300 use?
Our models discount Lotte Chilsung Beverage at 8.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lotte Chilsung Beverage that is +3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lotte Chilsung Beverage grew +12.0 % a year. The price currently implies +3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lotte Chilsung Beverage (+3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.71 %: that much free cash flow Lotte Chilsung Beverage produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lotte Chilsung Beverage it is 106,882 KRW per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 95,800 KRW. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lotte Chilsung Beverage stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 005300 trades below its calculated fair value: price 95,800 KRW, fair value 106,882 KRW, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 005300?
No. The price is what the market pays today (95,800 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (106,882 KRW). For Lotte Chilsung Beverage the two are 11,082 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lotte Chilsung Beverage worth?
The market values Lotte Chilsung Beverage at about 1.0T KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 95,800 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 106,882 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 005300?
Our models span a range for Lotte Chilsung Beverage: cautious scenario 80,161 KRW, base 106,882 KRW, optimistic 133,602 KRW per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 95,800 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 005300?
The PEG ratio of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lotte Chilsung Beverage (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 005300 from its 52-week high?
Lotte Chilsung Beverage trades at 95,800 KRW, about 33% below its 52-week high of 143,926 KRW and 2% above the low of 94,000 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 106,882 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lotte Chilsung Beverage?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lotte Chilsung Beverage stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 95,800 KRW, calculated fair value 106,882 KRW (+12%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 005300 calculated?
We run Lotte Chilsung Beverage through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 106,882 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lotte Chilsung Beverage currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 95,800 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 106,882 KRW, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lotte Chilsung Beverage right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Lotte Chilsung Beverage
How large is the market capitalisation of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The market capitalisation of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 1.0T KRW (≈ $710M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The dividend yield of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 3.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The net margin of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
The operating margin of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Revenue at Lotte Chilsung Beverage is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300)?
Earnings per share at Lotte Chilsung Beverage are growing +221% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lotte Chilsung Beverage (005300) carry?
The net debt of Lotte Chilsung Beverage is 1.4T KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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