Chinese Estates Holdings (0127) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$2.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9516 – HK$3.94 · fair‑value band HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4100 · the HK$1.08 price screens above the HK$0.2600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Chinese Estates Holdings (0127) currently trades at HK$1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 75.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$170M. Revenue grew 204.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.2%. Net debt stands at HK$648M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear case) to HK$0.4100 (bull case); at HK$1.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -76%, 0127 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.18) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6000). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development.
Full company description
Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development. The Group focuses primarily in Hong Kong, and diversifies its property interests to mainland China and the United Kingdom. Property Investment - The Groups investment properties include retail and office assets. Most of the investment properties of Chinese Estates are highly accessible and strategically located in prime commercial areas in Hong Kong such as Causeway Bay and Wanchai. In mainland China, Chinese Estates owns a five-star international hotel in Beijing. In the United Kingdom, Chinese Estates owns two investment properties in London. Over the past twenty years, Chinese Estates has built a reputation for conceptualising and implementing redevelopment, renovation works and repackaging programmes to enhance the value and revenue of its investment properties. Property Development - Chinese Estates specializes in developing mid to high-end commercial and residential property projects. A number of quality and cosmopolitan residential properties were developed for sale. The Group also participates in developing modern industrial properties. Business Strategies - Going forward, Chinese Estates will continue to grasp opportunities for acquiring properties and replenishing its landbank for developing quality projects. Furthermore, it will continue to enhance the value and revenue of its existing investment properties to increase recurrent income. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1986 in Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chinese Estates Holdings reported revenue of HK$367M in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound −25.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$388M in FY2025.
0127 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 128.80 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 66.00 THB | 71.37 THB | +8% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,591 | ₹645.21 | -59% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹1,905 | ₹701.74 | -63% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 17.55 SAR | 11.60 SAR | -34% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 54.08 | kr 70.70 | +31% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.94 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,954 CLP | 2,740 CLP | -31% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥23.19 | ¥4.60 | -80% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 52.49 MXN | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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