EN DE

Chinese Estates Holdings (0127) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$2.0B

CE Chinese Estates Holdings 0127 · HK
PriceHK$1.08
Fair ValueHK$0.2600
Upside-75.9%
Quality41/100
Watch Chinese Estates Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.94% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 4/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4100 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.94 HK$0.9516 Fair Value HK$0.2600 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9516 – HK$3.94 · fair‑value band HK$0.2600 – HK$0.4100 · the HK$1.08 price screens above the HK$0.2600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Chinese Estates Holdings (0127) currently trades at HK$1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 75.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$170M. Revenue grew 204.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.2%. Net debt stands at HK$648M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear case) to HK$0.4100 (bull case); at HK$1.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -76%, 0127 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.3500 HK$0.7000 HK$1.06 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3500 HK$0.6000 HK$0.7400 61
EV/EBITDA HK$1.63 HK$1.92 HK$2.22 54
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3500 HK$0.7000 HK$1.06 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3500 HK$0.6000 HK$0.7400 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$1.21 HK$1.35 HK$1.50 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.63 HK$1.92 HK$2.22 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.01 HK$1.11 HK$1.22 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.12 HK$4.18 HK$6.24 50

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.18) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6000). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Notify me when 0127 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$170M
Revenue growth (YoY) +204%
Net margin -229%
Return on equity -3.2%
Free cash flow −HK$280M FY2025
Operating margin -19.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.2200
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -83.2%
Net debt HK$648M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development.

Full company description

Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development. The Group focuses primarily in Hong Kong, and diversifies its property interests to mainland China and the United Kingdom. Property Investment - The Groups investment properties include retail and office assets. Most of the investment properties of Chinese Estates are highly accessible and strategically located in prime commercial areas in Hong Kong such as Causeway Bay and Wanchai. In mainland China, Chinese Estates owns a five-star international hotel in Beijing. In the United Kingdom, Chinese Estates owns two investment properties in London. Over the past twenty years, Chinese Estates has built a reputation for conceptualising and implementing redevelopment, renovation works and repackaging programmes to enhance the value and revenue of its investment properties. Property Development - Chinese Estates specializes in developing mid to high-end commercial and residential property projects. A number of quality and cosmopolitan residential properties were developed for sale. The Group also participates in developing modern industrial properties. Business Strategies - Going forward, Chinese Estates will continue to grasp opportunities for acquiring properties and replenishing its landbank for developing quality projects. Furthermore, it will continue to enhance the value and revenue of its existing investment properties to increase recurrent income. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1986 in Bermuda.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chinese Estates Holdings reported revenue of HK$367M in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound −25.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$388M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$367M
Latest YoY
+8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−36.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−35.5%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.4%
Revenue −25.0%/yr
FY21 HK$1.2B
FY22 HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$474M
FY24 HK$337M
FY25 HK$367M
Net income
FY21 −HK$3.5B
FY22 HK$1.2B
FY23 HK$76.8M
FY24 −HK$2.1B
FY25 −HK$388M

0127 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chinese Estates Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0127

Peer Group

Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −76% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -19% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 204% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 1.50× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 40
FUTURE 100 · sector 31
PAST 0 · sector 18
HEALTH 98 · sector 74
DIVIDEND 19 · sector 60

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Compare Chinese Estates Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Real Estate stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Chinese Estates Holdings (0127) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2600 versus a price of HK$1.08, about −76% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0127?
Our model-based fair value for Chinese Estates Holdings is HK$0.2600 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.08.
What is the quality score of 0127?
Chinese Estates Holdings has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chinese Estates Holdings (0127)?
Chinese Estates Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$170M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
Does Chinese Estates Holdings pay a dividend?
Chinese Estates Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.94% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Chinese Estates Holdings and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.