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Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd HK$0.51, price HK$1.02, upside -49.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN BMG2108M2182

CE Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd

0127 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.5100 · Strongly overvalued (−49.8%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −35.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -105.9% net margin (FY2025)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!3.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 4/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.79 HK$0.9516 Fair Value HK$0.5100 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9516 – HK$3.79 · fair‑value band HK$0.2900 – HK$0.6800 · the HK$1.02 price screens above the HK$0.5100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development.

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Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is one of the leading property developers in Hong Kong. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited is the holding company of the Group and it is publicly listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited with stock code: 127. Chinese Estates core businesses comprise of property investment for rental and property development. The Group focuses primarily in Hong Kong, and diversifies its property interests to mainland China and the United Kingdom. Property Investment - The Groups investment properties include retail and office assets. Most of the investment properties of Chinese Estates are highly accessible and strategically located in prime commercial areas in Hong Kong such as Causeway Bay and Wanchai. In mainland China, Chinese Estates owns a five-star international hotel in Beijing. In the United Kingdom, Chinese Estates owns two investment properties in London. Over the past twenty years, Chinese Estates has built a reputation for conceptualising and implementing redevelopment, renovation works and repackaging programmes to enhance the value and revenue of its investment properties. Property Development - Chinese Estates specializes in developing mid to high-end commercial and residential property projects. A number of quality and cosmopolitan residential properties were developed for sale. The Group also participates in developing modern industrial properties. Business Strategies - Going forward, Chinese Estates will continue to grasp opportunities for acquiring properties and replenishing its landbank for developing quality projects. Furthermore, it will continue to enhance the value and revenue of its existing investment properties to increase recurrent income. Chinese Estates Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1986 in Bermuda.

Stock analysis

Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127) currently trades at HK$1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5100, 49.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$4.18 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$1.02 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.4400, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.2900 (bear) to HK$0.6800 (bull), the price of HK$1.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$367M in FY2025 versus HK$1.2B in FY2021, a compound −25.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$388M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.9B (≈ $247M) · P/S ratio 11.8 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.2200 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin −106% · Return on equity −3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin −19.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −50%, 0127 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.2900 Fair Value HK$0.5100 Bull HK$0.6800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.2800 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6100 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2800 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5000 67
EV/EBITDA HK$0.8300 HK$0.8600 HK$0.8800 67
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.2800 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6100 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2800 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5000 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.8300 HK$0.8600 HK$0.8800 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.12 HK$4.18 HK$6.24 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−36.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−35.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
76.9% (2019) → −20.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

0127 screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −49.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −105.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −19.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 204.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 1.45× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)79 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN CHF 124.50 CHF 44.83 −64%
Central Pattana Public Company CPN 63.00 THB 71.37 THB +13%
The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD ₹1,978 ₹405.25 −80%
Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE ₹1,478 ₹297.85 −80%
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 17.15 SAR 15.41 SAR −10%
Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 ¥2.69 ¥0.7900 −71%
Allreal Holding ALLN CHF 193.00 CHF 84.23 −56%
Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO 3,670 CLP 3,708 CLP +1%
The St. Joe Company JOE $65.30 $34.53 −47%
Singapore Land Group U06 3.14 SGD 3.18 SGD +1%

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HK$0.5100 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0127

Frequently asked questions

Is Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5100 versus a price of HK$1.02, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0127?
Our model-based fair value for Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.02.
What is the quality score of 0127?
Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.6800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5100, about −50% upside versus a price of HK$1.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.6800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$170M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.02. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0127 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.02, fair value HK$0.5100, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0127?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5100). For Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.02; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0127?
Our models span a range for Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2900, base HK$0.5100, optimistic HK$0.6800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0127 from its 52-week high?
Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.02, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$1.32 and 1% above the low of HK$1.00 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.02, calculated fair value HK$0.5100 (−50%), Quality Score 41/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0127 calculated?
We run Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.02. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5100, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2900 to HK$0.6800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The market capitalisation of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is HK$1.9B (≈ $247M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is 11.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Earnings per share at Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.2200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The dividend yield of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is 3.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The net margin of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is −106% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
The operating margin of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is −19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Revenue at Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is growing +204% versus a year earlier (3y avg −36.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127)?
Earnings per share at Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd are growing −83.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127) generate?
The free cash flow of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is −HK$280M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd (0127) carry?
The net debt of Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd is HK$648M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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