Shindaeyang Pa (016590) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shindaeyang Pa KRW 15,456, price KRW 9,660, upside +60.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,655 KRW – 16,400 KRW · fair‑value band 11,592 KRW – 16,825 KRW · the 9,660 KRW price screens below the 15,456 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shindaeyang Paper Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of corrugated cardboard base paper. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Ansan-si, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Shindaeyang Pa (016590) currently trades at 9,660 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15,456 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 13,641 KRW per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the 9,660 KRW price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 8,970 KRW, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11,592 KRW (bear) to 16,825 KRW (bull), the price of 9,660 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Shindaeyang Pa reported revenue of 640B KRW in FY2025 versus 682B KRW in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 22.8B KRW in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 285B KRW (≈ $210M) · P/S ratio 0.42 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 2.4% · Revenue (TTM) 639B KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 60%, 016590 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 11,592 KRWFair Value 15,456 KRWBull 16,825 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−41.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 28.4%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shindaeyang Pa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/016590
Frequently asked questions
Is Shindaeyang Pa (016590) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15,456 KRW versus a price of 9,660 KRW, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 016590?
Our model-based fair value for Shindaeyang Pa is 15,456 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9,660 KRW.
What is the quality score of 016590?
Shindaeyang Pa has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15,456 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11,592 KRW, optimistic scenario 16,825 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shindaeyang Pa stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15,456 KRW, about +60% upside versus a price of 9,660 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 11,592 KRW, optimistic scenario 16,825 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Shindaeyang Pa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 639B KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shindaeyang Pa pay a dividend?
Shindaeyang Pa currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shindaeyang Pa would have to grow free cash flow by +12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 016590 use?
Our models discount Shindaeyang Pa at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shindaeyang Pa that is +12.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shindaeyang Pa (016590) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shindaeyang Pa grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shindaeyang Pa (016590) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shindaeyang Pa (+12.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Shindaeyang Pa produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shindaeyang Pa it is 15,456 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9,660 KRW. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shindaeyang Pa stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 016590 trades below its calculated fair value: price 9,660 KRW, fair value 15,456 KRW, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 016590?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9,660 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15,456 KRW). For Shindaeyang Pa the two are 5,796 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shindaeyang Pa worth?
The market values Shindaeyang Pa at about 285B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9,660 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 15,456 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 016590?
Our models span a range for Shindaeyang Pa: cautious scenario 11,592 KRW, base 15,456 KRW, optimistic 16,825 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9,660 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shindaeyang Pa (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 016590 from its 52-week high?
Shindaeyang Pa trades at 9,660 KRW, about 41% below its 52-week high of 16,400 KRW and 13% above the low of 8,520 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15,456 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shindaeyang Pa?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shindaeyang Pa stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9,660 KRW, calculated fair value 15,456 KRW (+60%), Quality Score 49/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 016590 calculated?
We run Shindaeyang Pa through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15,456 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shindaeyang Pa currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 9,660 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 15,456 KRW, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shindaeyang Pa right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (11,592 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Shindaeyang Pa
How large is the market capitalisation of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The market capitalisation of Shindaeyang Pa is 285B KRW (≈ $210M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shindaeyang Pa is 0.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The dividend yield of Shindaeyang Pa is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The net margin of Shindaeyang Pa is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shindaeyang Pa is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shindaeyang Pa is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
The operating margin of Shindaeyang Pa is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Revenue at Shindaeyang Pa is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shindaeyang Pa (016590)?
Earnings per share at Shindaeyang Pa are growing +31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shindaeyang Pa (016590) carry?
The net debt of Shindaeyang Pa is 50.6B KRW (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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