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Founder Holdings (0418) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$773M

FH Founder Holdings 0418 · HK
PriceHK$0.6450
Fair ValueHK$0.5300
Upside-17.8%
Quality62/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 3.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.3800 – HK$0.5500 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 19 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.4400 to HK$0.5300 (+20.5%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price −6.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.19 HK$0.3150 Fair Value HK$0.5300 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3150 – HK$1.19 · fair‑value band HK$0.3800 – HK$0.5500 · the HK$0.6450 price screens above the HK$0.5300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Founder Holdings (0418) currently trades at HK$0.6450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5300, implying the stock looks roughly 17.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Founder Holdings generated revenue of HK$907M at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$244M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3800 (bear case) to HK$0.5500 (bull case); at HK$0.6450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -18%, 0418 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.4400 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6100 80
Residual Income HK$0.6500 HK$0.6000 HK$0.4500 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6800 74
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.4400 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6200 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.4900 HK$0.5700 HK$0.7100 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4400 HK$0.5400 HK$0.6900 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.3700 HK$0.4200 HK$0.4900 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.5700 HK$0.7700 HK$1.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5800 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4000 HK$0.4400 HK$0.4700 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.5100 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7500 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1800 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2400 54
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.5400 HK$0.7200 HK$0.9000 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3300 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3300 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 55
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3400 HK$0.3800 HK$0.4200 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.4600 HK$0.5700 HK$0.6800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4800 HK$0.6500 HK$0.9700 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.4400 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6100 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6800 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.6500 HK$0.6000 HK$0.4500 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3800 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7100 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.6500) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$907M
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.3%
Net margin 3.3%
Return on equity 2.7%
Free cash flow HK$32.0M FY2025
P/E ratio 22.3 as of Jul 1, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -6.7%
Net cash HK$244M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Founder Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of software, hardware and system integration in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company is also involved in the property holding business. Founder Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Founder Holdings reported revenue of HK$907M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$29.8M in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$907M
Latest YoY
−1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.7%
Revenue −4.1%/yr
FY21 HK$1.1B
FY22 HK$958M
FY23 HK$982M
FY24 HK$925M
FY25 HK$907M
Net income −9.0%/yr
FY21 HK$43.5M
FY22 HK$34.8M
FY23 HK$59.8M
FY24 HK$47.9M
FY25 HK$29.8M

0418 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Founder Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.5300 −18%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Founder Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0418

Peer Group

Software - Application · 717 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −18% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets -0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.69× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 46.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 10 · sector 2
FUTURE 22 · sector 38
PAST 11 · sector 13
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 34

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAPS C$12.46 C$16.26 +30%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$209.78 C$28.76 -86%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $75.36 $43.66 -42%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $193.32 $249.28 +29%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $124.94 $43.73 -65%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $323.13 $112.57 -65%
Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 ¥254.50 ¥81.23 -68%
Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI ₹3,712 ₹2,519 -32%
Douzone Bizon Co 012510 120,000 KRW 92,181 KRW -23%
KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH ₹922.00 ₹556.85 -40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Founder Holdings (0418) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5300 versus a price of HK$0.6450, about −18% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0418?
Our model-based fair value for Founder Holdings is HK$0.5300 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6450.
What is the quality score of 0418?
Founder Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Founder Holdings (0418)?
Founder Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$907M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0418?
The net profit margin of Founder Holdings is about 3.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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