Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Founder Holdings Ltd HK$0.49, price HK$0.73, upside -32.9%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3150 – HK$1.19 · fair‑value band HK$0.4200 – HK$0.5800 · the HK$0.7300 price screens above the HK$0.4900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Founder Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of software, hardware and system integration in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company is also involved in the property holding business. Founder Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) currently trades at HK$0.7300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4900, 32.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.6500 per share, and 1 of the 19 models we run sit above the HK$0.7300 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2100, and 18 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.4200 (bear) to HK$0.5800 (bull), the price of HK$0.7300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Founder Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$907M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$29.8M in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$848M (≈ $108M) · P/E ratio 22.3 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −33%, 0418 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.4200Fair Value HK$0.4900Bull HK$0.5800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.8% vs 15.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 697 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.76× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.94× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF26.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA52.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)22· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4900 versus a price of HK$0.7300, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0418?
Our model-based fair value for Founder Holdings Ltd is HK$0.4900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7300.
What is the quality score of 0418?
Founder Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.4900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4200, optimistic scenario HK$0.5800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Founder Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.4900, about −33% upside versus a price of HK$0.7300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4200, optimistic scenario HK$0.5800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Founder Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$907M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Founder Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0418 use?
Our models discount Founder Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Founder Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Founder Holdings Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Founder Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow Founder Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Founder Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.4900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7300. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Founder Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0418 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7300, fair value HK$0.4900, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0418?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.4900). For Founder Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Founder Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Founder Holdings Ltd at about HK$848M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.4900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0418?
Our models span a range for Founder Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4200, base HK$0.4900, optimistic HK$0.5800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.7300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0418?
Founder Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.4900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 52.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Balance-sheet figures for Founder Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0418 from its 52-week high?
Founder Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.7300, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9500 and 32% above the low of HK$0.5550 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.4900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Founder Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Founder Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.7300, calculated fair value HK$0.4900 (−33%), Quality Score 62/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0418 calculated?
We run Founder Holdings Ltd through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.4900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Founder Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.7300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.4900, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Founder Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Founder Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The market capitalisation of Founder Holdings Ltd is HK$848M (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Founder Holdings Ltd is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Earnings per share at Founder Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The net margin of Founder Holdings Ltd is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Founder Holdings Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Founder Holdings Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
The operating margin of Founder Holdings Ltd is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Revenue at Founder Holdings Ltd is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Founder Holdings Ltd (0418)?
Earnings per share at Founder Holdings Ltd are growing −6.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Founder Holdings Ltd (0418) hold?
Founder Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$244M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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