China Oriental Group (0581) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$4.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.19 to HK$1.78 (+49.2%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +9.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9494 – HK$2.65 · fair‑value band HK$1.34 – HK$2.22 · the HK$1.11 price screens below the HK$1.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Oriental Group (0581) currently trades at HK$1.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.78, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Oriental Group generated revenue of HK$40.4B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.2%. Net debt stands at HK$7.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.34 (bear case) to HK$2.22 (bull case); at HK$1.11, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 60%, 0581 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.03) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments.
Full company description
China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments. The company offers H-section steel products for use in non-residential construction and infrastructure projects; strips and strip products; cold rolled sheets for use in manufacturing home electric appliances, hardware, and pipes, etc.; galvanized sheets for production of civil-purpose sheets; billets for use as substrate in downstream steel products; and rebars for use in residential and non-residential projects, as well as sheet piling products. It also engages in the trade of steel, iron ore, and related products; sale of power equipment; manufacture and sale of casting products; equipment maintenance; and real estate business. China Oriental Group Company Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Oriental Group reported revenue of HK$40.4B in FY2025 versus HK$52.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$225M in FY2025, compounding −45.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 0581: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Steel · 380 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,269 | ₹1,140 | -10% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.20 | ₹145.39 | -22% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 37.25 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 325,000 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -52% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,838 ARS | +16% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,112 | ₹516.27 | -54% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,894 | ₹771.10 | -59% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 39.22 MXN | -53% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,472 ARS | +55% |
| NMDC Limited NMDC | ₹85.00 | ₹112.98 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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