EN DE

China Oriental Group (0581) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$4.2B

CO China Oriental Group 0581 · HK
PriceHK$1.11
Fair ValueHK$1.78
Upside+60.0%
Quality50/100
Watch China Oriental Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.34 – HK$2.22 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.19 to HK$1.78 (+49.2%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +9.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.65 HK$0.9494 Fair Value HK$1.78 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9494 – HK$2.65 · fair‑value band HK$1.34 – HK$2.22 · the HK$1.11 price screens below the HK$1.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

China Oriental Group (0581) currently trades at HK$1.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.78, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Oriental Group generated revenue of HK$40.4B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.2%. Net debt stands at HK$7.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.34 (bear case) to HK$2.22 (bull case); at HK$1.11, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 60%, 0581 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$4.04 HK$3.72 HK$2.66 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.29 HK$3.49 HK$3.66 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5500 HK$0.7800 HK$1.02 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.4100 HK$0.7200 HK$0.8800 54
EPV HK$3.29 HK$3.49 HK$3.66 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.7700 HK$1.03 HK$1.28 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.7700 HK$1.03 HK$1.28 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7700 HK$1.03 HK$1.28 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.27 HK$5.02 HK$5.77 53
EV/EBITDA HK$5.99 HK$7.31 HK$8.64 54
EV/Revenue HK$3.97 HK$4.81 HK$5.64 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.01 HK$4.03 HK$6.01 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.04 HK$3.72 HK$2.66 76
ROIC Compounder HK$3.29 HK$3.49 HK$3.66 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5500 HK$0.7800 HK$1.02 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.03) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Notify me when 0581 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$40.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.8%
Net margin 0.6%
Return on equity 1.2%
Free cash flow −HK$52.1M FY2025
P/E ratio 16.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
EPS growth (YoY) -41.4%
Net debt HK$7.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments.

Full company description

China Oriental Group Company Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel products for downstream steel manufacturers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Iron and Steel, and Real Estate segments. The company offers H-section steel products for use in non-residential construction and infrastructure projects; strips and strip products; cold rolled sheets for use in manufacturing home electric appliances, hardware, and pipes, etc.; galvanized sheets for production of civil-purpose sheets; billets for use as substrate in downstream steel products; and rebars for use in residential and non-residential projects, as well as sheet piling products. It also engages in the trade of steel, iron ore, and related products; sale of power equipment; manufacture and sale of casting products; equipment maintenance; and real estate business. China Oriental Group Company Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Oriental Group reported revenue of HK$40.4B in FY2025 versus HK$52.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$225M in FY2025, compounding −45.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 20/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$40.4B
Latest YoY
−5.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Revenue −6.1%/yr
FY21 HK$52.0B
FY22 HK$48.6B
FY23 HK$46.3B
FY24 HK$43.0B
FY25 HK$40.4B
Net income −45.2%/yr
FY21 HK$2.5B
FY22 HK$808M
FY23 −HK$160M
FY24 HK$149M
FY25 HK$225M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −9.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.9 pp

of which total revenue +4.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.6 pp

EBIT margin −11.3 pp
Tax rate +0.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

Watch 0581: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Oriental Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0581

Peer Group

Steel · 380 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 5.10× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 15
FUTURE 4 · sector 5
PAST 5 · sector 16
HEALTH 94 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,269 ₹1,140 -10%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.20 ₹145.39 -22%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 37.25 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 325,000 KRW 155,270 KRW -52%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,838 ARS +16%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,112 ₹516.27 -54%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,894 ₹771.10 -59%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 39.22 MXN -53%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,472 ARS +55%
NMDC Limited NMDC ₹85.00 ₹112.98 +33%

Compare China Oriental Group with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is China Oriental Group (0581) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.78 versus a price of HK$1.11, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0581?
Our model-based fair value for China Oriental Group is HK$1.78 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.11.
What is the quality score of 0581?
China Oriental Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Oriental Group (0581)?
China Oriental Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$40.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0581?
The net profit margin of China Oriental Group is about 0.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track China Oriental Group and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.