Gogox Holdings Limited (2246) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$76.6M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.78 to HK$0.7700 (−56.7%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.5700 to HK$1.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range HK$1.11 – HK$167.20 · fair‑value band HK$0.5700 – HK$1.15 · the HK$1.20 price screens above the HK$0.7700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Gogox Holdings Limited (2246) currently trades at HK$1.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7700, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gogox Holdings Limited generated revenue of HK$671M at a net margin of -24.1%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -73.3%. Net debt stands at HK$197M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.5700 (bear case) to HK$1.15 (bull case); at HK$1.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -36%, 2246 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gogox Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides logistic and delivery solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and internationally. It operates online intra-city logistics platform under the Kuaigou Dache and GoGoX brand names. The company's platform connects transacting user and logistic and delivery service provider.
Full company description
Gogox Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides logistic and delivery solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and internationally. It operates online intra-city logistics platform under the Kuaigou Dache and GoGoX brand names. The company's platform connects transacting user and logistic and delivery service provider. It is also involved in the provision of information technology, insurance brokerage, consultancy, technical, cargo compensation facilitation, and development and consultation; motor vehicle repair and maintenance; fuel card arrangement; computer programming activities; rental; payment processing; computer; and property holding activities. The company was formerly known as 58 Freight Inc. and changed its name to Gogox Holdings Limited in November 2021. Gogox Holdings Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gogox Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$671M in FY2025 versus HK$661M in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$161M in FY2025.
2246 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 718 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.46 | C$16.26 | +30% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | -86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $75.36 | $43.66 | -42% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $193.32 | $249.28 | +29% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $124.94 | $43.73 | -65% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $323.13 | $112.57 | -65% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥254.50 | ¥81.23 | -68% |
| Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI | ₹3,712 | ₹2,519 | -32% |
| Douzone Bizon Co 012510 | 120,000 KRW | 92,181 KRW | -23% |
| KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH | ₹922.00 | ₹556.85 | -40% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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