STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD TWD 4.15, price TWD 20.20, upside -79.5%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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STARLUX Airlines Co., Ltd. engages in the civil aviation transport business in Taiwan. It offers passenger and cargo transportation services. STARLUX Airlines Co., Ltd. was founded in 2018 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646) currently trades at 20.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.15 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 386.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 6.99 TWD per share, and 1 of the 10 models we run sit above the 20.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 1.54 TWD, and 9 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.90 TWD (bear) to 4.15 TWD (bull), the price of 20.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD reported revenue of 44.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 796M TWD in FY2021, a compound +172.8%/yr. Reported net income was 273M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 60.8B TWD (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 236.7 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) −0.3300 TWD · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity −3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin −5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −79%, 2646 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (1.54 TWD to 25.58 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 2.90 TWDFair Value 4.15 TWDBull 4.15 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+135.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−400% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.68× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)236.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.04× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 61
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)16· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.15 TWD versus a price of 20.20 TWD, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2646?
Our model-based fair value for STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is 4.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2646?
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.90 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.15 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the STARLUX AIRLINES LTD stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.15 TWD, about −79% upside versus a price of 20.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.90 TWD, optimistic scenario 4.15 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 50.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For STARLUX AIRLINES LTD it is 4.15 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 20.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is STARLUX AIRLINES LTD stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2646 trades above its calculated fair value: price 20.20 TWD, fair value 4.15 TWD, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2646?
No. The price is what the market pays today (20.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.15 TWD). For STARLUX AIRLINES LTD the two are 16.05 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is STARLUX AIRLINES LTD worth?
The market values STARLUX AIRLINES LTD at about 60.8B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 20.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 4.15 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2646?
Our models span a range for STARLUX AIRLINES LTD: cautious scenario 2.90 TWD, base 4.15 TWD, optimistic 4.15 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 20.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2646?
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 236.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4.15 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
Balance-sheet figures for STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.1%, debt of 1.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2646 from its 52-week high?
STARLUX AIRLINES LTD trades at 20.20 TWD, about 19% below its 52-week high of 24.85 TWD and 1% above the low of 20.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.15 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to STARLUX AIRLINES LTD?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is STARLUX AIRLINES LTD stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 20.20 TWD, calculated fair value 4.15 TWD (−79%), Quality Score 23/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2646 calculated?
We run STARLUX AIRLINES LTD through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.15 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. STARLUX AIRLINES LTD itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 20.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 4.15 TWD, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with STARLUX AIRLINES LTD right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.15 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD
How large is the market capitalisation of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The market capitalisation of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is 60.8B TWD (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The price-to-sales ratio of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is 1.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
Earnings per share at STARLUX AIRLINES LTD are −0.3300 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 236.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The net margin of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The return on equity (ROE) of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
The operating margin of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646)?
Revenue at STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is growing +37.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +136%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646) generate?
The free cash flow of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is −12.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does STARLUX AIRLINES LTD (2646) carry?
The net debt of STARLUX AIRLINES LTD is 39.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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