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Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist stock ¥0.57, price ¥3.70, that is 84.6% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100000GT2

JX Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist

300013 · SHE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 85% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value ¥0.5700 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 37/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.2 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -0.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 14/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥6.65 ¥1.44 Fair Value ¥0.5700 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.44 – ¥6.65 · fair‑value band ¥0.3500 – ¥0.8000 · the ¥3.70 price screens above the ¥0.5700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics and supply chain management services in China.

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It offers warehousing management and distribution, freight forwarding, import and export customs clearance and inspection, smart supply chain, smart Internet of Things and Beidou positioning, transportation, agency customs declaration, software and hardware, consulting, commodity trading, new energy vehicle rental, and navigation and satellite positioning services.

The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd. in July 2022. Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Kunshan, China.

Stock analysis

Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013) currently trades at ¥3.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5700, 85% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥0.9000 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥3.70 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.1800, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.3500 (bear) to ¥0.8000 (bull), the price of ¥3.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist reported revenue of 724M CNY in FY2025 versus 883M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was −27.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.1B CNY (≈ $309M) Small · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0200 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −0.7% · Return on equity −4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −85%, 300013 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.3500 Fair Value ¥0.5700 Bull ¥0.8000
Price ¥3.70 · Downside -84.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings ¥0.6100 ¥0.9000 ¥1.34 74
EV/EBITDA ¥0.3500 ¥0.5700 ¥0.8000 65
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1400 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2700 54
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥0.6100 ¥0.9000 ¥1.34 74
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥0.3500 ¥0.5700 ¥0.8000 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1400 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2700 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 22
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 73
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 39
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 22
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+50.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.8% (2020) → −4.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

300013 screens overvalued: fair value 85% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −84.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 349.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 11.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.49× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)1 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥34.54 ¥45.60 +32% vs 300013
FedEx Corporation FDX $308.14 $350.86 +14% vs 300013
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $108.30 $107.24 −1% vs 300013
Deutsche Post AG DHL €58.02 €53.62 −8% vs 300013
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $184.61 $117.46 −36% vs 300013
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 235.50 CHF 147.92 −37% vs 300013
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $217.55 $133.78 −39% vs 300013
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.52 €14.76 −40% vs 300013
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,470 kr 711.95 −52% vs 300013
FedEx Freight Holding FDXF $123.56 $54.55 −56% vs 300013

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Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300013

Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.5700 versus a price of ¥3.70, about 85% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300013?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is ¥0.5700 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.70.
What is the quality score of 300013?
Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.5700 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3500, optimistic scenario ¥0.8000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.5700, about 85% lower versus a price of ¥3.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3500, optimistic scenario ¥0.8000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist currently shows a dividend yield of 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist has a dividend yield of 0.1%.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist it is ¥0.5700 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥3.70. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 300013 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.70, fair value ¥0.5700, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300013?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.5700). For Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist the two are ¥3.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist worth?
The market values Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist at about 2.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.70; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.5700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300013?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist: cautious scenario ¥0.3500, base ¥0.5700, optimistic ¥0.8000 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥3.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −4.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300013 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist trades at ¥3.70, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥4.93 and 13% above the low of ¥3.28 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.5700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥3.70, calculated fair value ¥0.5700 (−85%), Quality Score 37/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300013 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist through 3 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥0.5700 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥3.70. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.5700, about 85% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.8000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.3500 to ¥0.8000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist

How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is 2.1B CNY (≈ $309M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist are ¥−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is −0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is −4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is −5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is growing +349% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is −225M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist (300013) carry?
The net debt of Jiangsu Xinning Modern Logist is 183M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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