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Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd ¥19.91, price ¥19.62, upside +1.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100001YP1

LS Some data Sep 24, 2026

Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd

300428 · SHE

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value ¥19.91 · Fairly valued (+1%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.99% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥42.14 ¥11.65 Fair Value ¥19.91 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥11.65 – ¥42.14 · fair‑value band ¥14.93 – ¥24.89 · the ¥19.62 price screens below the ¥19.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, manufacture, and sale of functional master alloys, recycled cast aluminum alloy materials, and aluminum alloy wheel products.

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Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, manufacture, and sale of functional master alloys, recycled cast aluminum alloy materials, and aluminum alloy wheel products. It operates through three segments: Aluminum-Based Functional Master Alloys, Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloys, And Aluminum Alloy Wheels. The company offers aluminum-based functional master alloys, aerospace special master alloys fluxes, and other master alloy products; casting aluminium alloy ingots and liquid, wrought aluminium alloys, national aluminium alloy standard samples, and new aluminium alloy materials; and aluminium alloy wheels, lightweight automotive components, and precision molds, as well as retails customized products. Its products are used in automobiles, high-speed rail, power and electric appliances, consumer electronics, communications, aerospace, high-end equipment, and ships. It operates in China, Europe, North America, South America, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The company was formerly known as Hebei Sitong New Metal Material Co., Ltd and changed its name to Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd. in July 2022. Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1984 and is based in Baoding, China.

Stock analysis

Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) currently trades at ¥19.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.91, implying the stock looks roughly 1.5% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥55.85 per share, and 12 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥19.62 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.93, and 5 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥14.93 (bear) to ¥24.89 (bull), the price of ¥19.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 32.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 18.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was 889M CNY in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 13.8B CNY (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.42 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 1%, 300428 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥14.93 Fair Value ¥19.91 Bull ¥24.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.7535 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV ¥14.03 ¥16.10 ¥17.91 74
Residual Income ¥10.71 ¥12.16 ¥20.92 72
ROIC Compounder ¥16.81 ¥22.99 ¥28.82 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥16.16 ¥34.70 ¥73.60 68
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥8.82 ¥61.50 ¥86.31 61
Lynch FV ¥31.78 ¥45.39 ¥59.01 59
PEG = 1.0 ¥31.78 ¥45.39 ¥59.01 55
EPV ¥14.03 ¥16.10 ¥17.91 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥6.49 ¥13.49 ¥21.41 64
DDM Multi-Stage ¥6.49 ¥11.38 ¥14.16 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥16.54 ¥22.05 ¥27.56 63
P/S Multiple ¥16.54 ¥22.05 ¥27.56 58
P/B Multiple ¥16.54 ¥22.05 ¥27.56 55
EV/EBIT ¥17.21 ¥22.40 ¥27.59 66
EV/EBITDA ¥19.67 ¥25.68 ¥31.69 67
EV/Revenue ¥15.13 ¥20.92 ¥26.70 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.92 ¥7.93 ¥11.84 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥10.71 ¥12.16 ¥20.92 72
ROIC Compounder ¥16.81 ¥22.99 ¥28.82 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥39.09 ¥55.85 ¥72.60 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +45.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 19%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)35 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 26
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)40 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥17.10 ¥45.29 +165%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$21.36 HK$57.07 +167%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹973.00 ₹1,026 +5%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.27 ¥12.58 +36%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 85.54 kr 58.10 −32%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.60 MYR 8.36 MYR +10%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥26.95 ¥38.55 +43%
Alcoa Corporation AA $44.71 $40.18 −10%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥26.38 ¥32.01 +21%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.64 ¥37.38 +196%

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Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥19.91 +1%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300428

Frequently asked questions

Is Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥19.91 versus a price of ¥19.62, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 300428?
Our model-based fair value for Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is ¥19.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥19.62.
What is the quality score of 300428?
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥19.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥14.93, optimistic scenario ¥24.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥19.91, about +1% upside versus a price of ¥19.62 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥14.93, optimistic scenario ¥24.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd it is ¥19.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥19.62. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300428 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥19.62, fair value ¥19.91, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300428?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥19.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥19.91). For Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd the two are ¥0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd at about 13.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥19.62; our models calculate a fair value of ¥19.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300428?
Our models span a range for Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥14.93, base ¥19.91, optimistic ¥24.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥19.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300428?
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥19.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300428 from its 52-week high?
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd trades at ¥19.62, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥25.94 and 19% above the low of ¥16.50 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥19.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥19.62, calculated fair value ¥19.91 (+1%), Quality Score 44/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300428 calculated?
We run Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥19.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥19.62. Our model-based fair value is ¥19.91, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) come from?
Earnings per share at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd grew +18.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +34.5 %, EBIT margin −10.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The market capitalisation of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 13.8B CNY (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Earnings per share at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd are ¥1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The dividend yield of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 2.0% (payout 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The net margin of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
The operating margin of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Revenue at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428)?
Earnings per share at Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd are growing +16.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) generate?
The free cash flow of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is −771M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd (300428) carry?
The net debt of Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co Ltd is 7.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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