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Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd (3363) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$160M

ZI Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd 3363 · HK
PriceHK$0.3500
Fair ValueHK$0.5600
Upside+60.0%
Quality39/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
3.45% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 14/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7000 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +7.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.6279 HK$0.2888 Fair Value HK$0.5600 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2888 – HK$0.6279 · fair‑value band HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7000 · the HK$0.3500 price screens below the HK$0.5600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd (3363) currently trades at HK$0.3500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5600, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.5B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at HK$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4200 (bear case) to HK$0.7000 (bull case); at HK$0.3500, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 60%, 3363 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$1.40 HK$1.28 HK$0.8200 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.1400 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 70
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2900 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5300 68
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1900 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6600 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1800 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1400 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1400 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2400 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6000 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6000 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6000 55
EV/EBITDA HK$1.25 HK$1.71 HK$2.18 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.13 HK$1.51 HK$2.25 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.40 HK$1.28 HK$0.8200 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2900 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5300 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$1.51) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.3%
Net margin 0.6%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow −HK$390M FY2025
P/E ratio 10.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -0.8%
Dividend yield 3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -43.0%
Net debt HK$1.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhengye International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of paper, paperboard, and paper-based packaging products in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Packaging Paper, and Paper-Based Packaging.

Full company description

Zhengye International Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of paper, paperboard, and paper-based packaging products in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Packaging Paper, and Paper-Based Packaging. The company offers paper-based packaging products, including craft and color printing boxes, honeycomb paper, and color box packaging products; and corrugated medium, and craft paper products. It is also involved in the printing of decorative packaging products; and property, management, development, and leasing activities. In addition, the company provides transportation and project management services. It serves manufacturers of home appliances, large manufacturing enterprises in the food sectors, fast-moving consumer goods, electronic products, daily chemical products and cosmetics, and other manufacturing enterprises. Zhengye International Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, the People's Republic China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.5B in FY2025 versus HK$3.6B in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.1M in FY2025, compounding −45.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 24/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.5B
Latest YoY
+0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.3%
Revenue −8.9%/yr
FY21 HK$3.6B
FY22 HK$3.0B
FY23 HK$2.4B
FY24 HK$2.4B
FY25 HK$2.5B
Net income −45.6%/yr
FY21 HK$161M
FY22 HK$47.2M
FY23 −HK$17.6M
FY24 HK$36.4M
FY25 HK$14.1M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3363

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.32× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.14× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 27
FUTURE 42 · sector 7
PAST 5 · sector 12
HEALTH 84 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 69 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.55 R$3.80 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.18 €14.21 -39%
Suzano S.A SUZ $8.02 $23.77 +196%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 109.40 kr 49.40 -55%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.94 ¥17.29 +24%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 323.20 kr 217.72 -33%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$8.21 HK$8.74 +6%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,000 CLP 1,253 CLP +25%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.11 ¥21.06 -0%
Billerud AB BILL kr 77.60 kr 48.60 -37%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd (3363) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5600 versus a price of HK$0.3500, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3363?
Our model-based fair value for Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd is HK$0.5600 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.3500.
What is the quality score of 3363?
Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd (3363)?
Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3363?
The net profit margin of Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd is about 0.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhengye International Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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