Liaoning Shenhua Holdings (600653) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +5.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.3300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.1700 to ¥0.3300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.15 – ¥3.19 · fair‑value band ¥0.1700 – ¥0.3300 · the ¥1.66 price screens above the ¥0.2200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Liaoning Shenhua Holdings (600653) currently trades at ¥1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.2200, implying the stock looks roughly 86.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Liaoning Shenhua Holdings generated revenue of 3.5B CNY at a net margin of -5.4%. Revenue declined 17.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.3%. Net debt stands at 867M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.1700 (bear case) to ¥0.3300 (bull case); at ¥1.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -87%, 600653 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the automobile sales and services business in China. It operates through the Automobile, New Energy, Real Estate, and Others segments.
Full company description
Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co.,Ltd engages in the automobile sales and services business in China. It operates through the Automobile, New Energy, Real Estate, and Others segments. The company operates as a BMW brand car dealer; provides after-sales services through the operation of an automobile culture industrial park; operates photovoltaic power plants; engages in property leasing of financial buildings and project management; and provides training and services. It is also involved in automobile and accessories sales, maintenance, and decoration; new energy investment, consulting, and technical services; solar photovoltaic power field development; photovoltaic power generation project investment and technology consultation; mechanical and electrical equipment wholesale; Chinese medicinal materials planting; flowers and edible fungi planting and wholesale; and vocational education and quasi-financial business. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Shenhua Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co.,Ltd in December 2020. Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co.,Ltd was founded in 1986 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Liaoning Shenhua Holdings reported revenue of ¥3.7B in FY2025 versus ¥7.1B in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥178M in FY2025.
600653 screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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