Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group (600738) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥4.74 to ¥4.38 (−7.6%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (¥3.21 to ¥5.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.32 – ¥9.28 · fair‑value band ¥3.21 – ¥5.92 · the ¥4.03 price screens below the ¥4.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group (600738) currently trades at ¥4.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.38, implying the stock looks roughly 8.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group generated revenue of 632M CNY at a net margin of 26.3%. Revenue declined 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 237M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.21 (bear case) to ¥5.92 (bull case); at ¥4.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 9%, 600738 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥4.04) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.3800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd operates department stores in China and internationally. It offers various products, such as food, cosmetics, jewelry, clothing, footwear, sports goods, household appliances, etc. It also operates hotels, restaurants, and boutique supermarkets. In addition, it constructs shopping malls and hotels.
Full company description
Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd operates department stores in China and internationally. It offers various products, such as food, cosmetics, jewelry, clothing, footwear, sports goods, household appliances, etc. It also operates hotels, restaurants, and boutique supermarkets. In addition, it constructs shopping malls and hotels. The company was formerly known as Lanzhou Minbaishareholding(Group) Co.,Ltd. Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd in 1992 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group reported revenue of ¥634M in FY2025 versus ¥643M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥164M in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −5.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 51.49 MXN | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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