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Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Xintai Ntrl Gas ¥33.80, price ¥25.19, upside +34.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · CN · ISIN CNE100003J56

XN Some data Sep 23, 2026

Xintai Ntrl Gas

603393 · SHG

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value ¥33.80 · Undervalued (+34%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥42.81 ¥15.20 Fair Value ¥33.80 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥15.20 – ¥42.81 · fair‑value band ¥23.66 – ¥42.83 · the ¥25.19 price screens below the ¥33.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, transmits, distributes, sells, and installs natural gas in China. It operates through three segments: City Gas and Natural Gas Extraction and Sales; Coalbed Methane; and Other.

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Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, transmits, distributes, sells, and installs natural gas in China. It operates through three segments: City Gas and Natural Gas Extraction and Sales; Coalbed Methane; and Other. The company engages in the home installation of natural gas; exploration, development, and production of coalbed methane and conventional oil and gas; and operation of pipelines and gas stations. It is also involved in pipeline installation and transportation; gas and water production and supply; technical services; LNG production and trading; research and development; vehicle transportation; software and information technology services; money lending business; mining operations; and sale of food grade beverages. In addition, the company engages in the energy industry chain, industrial investment finance, and technological development businesses. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and CNG vehicle users. The company was formerly known as Xinjiang Xintai Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. in December 2012. Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Urumqi, China.

Stock analysis

Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) currently trades at ¥25.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥33.80, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥33.80 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥25.19 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥9.50, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥23.66 (bear) to ¥42.83 (bull), the price of ¥25.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Xintai Ntrl Gas reported revenue of 3.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 807M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 10.7B CNY (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 3.84 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.35 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 20.6% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 34%, 603393 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥23.66 Fair Value ¥33.80 Bull ¥42.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9875 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥18.41 ¥20.04 ¥26.42 76
EPV ¥10.16 ¥12.85 ¥15.21 74
ROIC Compounder ¥10.16 ¥12.85 ¥15.21 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥12.94 ¥61.30 ¥84.32 64
Lynch FV ¥16.28 ¥23.26 ¥30.24 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥16.28 ¥23.26 ¥30.24 57
EPV ¥10.16 ¥12.85 ¥15.21 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.42 ¥11.27 ¥17.88 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.42 ¥9.50 ¥11.83 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥25.70 ¥34.26 ¥42.83 63
P/S Multiple ¥17.34 ¥23.12 ¥28.90 58
P/B Multiple ¥24.27 ¥32.36 ¥40.45 55
EV/EBIT ¥25.48 ¥35.96 ¥46.45 65
EV/EBITDA ¥37.80 ¥52.40 ¥66.99 67
EV/Revenue ¥10.21 ¥17.15 ¥24.08 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥10.81 ¥14.49 ¥21.63 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥18.41 ¥20.04 ¥26.42 76
ROIC Compounder ¥10.16 ¥12.85 ¥15.21 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥23.66 ¥33.80 ¥43.94 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 102 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +34% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.63× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.83× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)79 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)12 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)46 · sector 73

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.48 €32.79 +11%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $157.34 $77.92 −50%
NiSource Inc NI $39.88 $19.90 −50%
Uniper SE UN0 €48.45 €45.97 −5%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.12 HK$4.79 −33%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.84 ₹135.08 −21%
Italgas S.p.A IG €8.54 €9.39 +10%
UGI Corporation UGI $36.85 $32.82 −11%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $83.49 $57.83 −31%
New Jersey Resources Corporation NJR $52.72 $37.04 −30%

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Xintai Ntrl Gas · Fair Value
¥33.80 +25%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xintai Ntrl Gas Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603393

Frequently asked questions

Is Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥33.80 versus a price of ¥25.19, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603393?
Our model-based fair value for Xintai Ntrl Gas is ¥33.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.19.
What is the quality score of 603393?
Xintai Ntrl Gas has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥33.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥23.66, optimistic scenario ¥42.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xintai Ntrl Gas stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥33.80, about +34% upside versus a price of ¥25.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥23.66, optimistic scenario ¥42.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Xintai Ntrl Gas reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Xintai Ntrl Gas pay a dividend?
Xintai Ntrl Gas currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xintai Ntrl Gas it is ¥33.80 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥25.19. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xintai Ntrl Gas stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 603393 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥25.19, fair value ¥33.80, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603393?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥33.80). For Xintai Ntrl Gas the two are ¥8.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xintai Ntrl Gas worth?
The market values Xintai Ntrl Gas at about 10.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥33.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603393?
Our models span a range for Xintai Ntrl Gas: cautious scenario ¥23.66, base ¥33.80, optimistic ¥42.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥25.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603393?
Xintai Ntrl Gas trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥33.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xintai Ntrl Gas (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603393 from its 52-week high?
Xintai Ntrl Gas trades at ¥25.19, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥42.81 and 18% above the low of ¥21.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥33.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xintai Ntrl Gas?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xintai Ntrl Gas stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥25.19, calculated fair value ¥33.80 (+34%), Quality Score 39/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603393 calculated?
We run Xintai Ntrl Gas through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥33.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Xintai Ntrl Gas currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥25.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥33.80, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xintai Ntrl Gas right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range (¥23.66 to ¥42.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) come from?
Earnings per share at Xintai Ntrl Gas grew +14.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.5 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Xintai Ntrl Gas

How large is the market capitalisation of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The market capitalisation of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 10.7B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 3.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Earnings per share at Xintai Ntrl Gas are ¥1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The dividend yield of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 2.3% (payout 43.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The net margin of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 11.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
The operating margin of Xintai Ntrl Gas is 32.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Revenue at Xintai Ntrl Gas is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393)?
Earnings per share at Xintai Ntrl Gas are growing −30.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) generate?
The free cash flow of Xintai Ntrl Gas is −1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Xintai Ntrl Gas (603393) hold?
Xintai Ntrl Gas holds more cash than debt, 1.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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