GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD (603863) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 3.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥3.62 to ¥5.00 (+38.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥2.24 to ¥8.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.90 – ¥45.35 · fair‑value band ¥2.24 – ¥8.66 · the ¥12.59 price screens above the ¥5.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD (603863) currently trades at ¥12.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.00, implying the stock looks roughly 60.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD generated revenue of 462M CNY at a net margin of -41.3%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -55.0%. Net debt stands at 323M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.24 (bear case) to ¥8.66 (bull case); at ¥12.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -60%, 603863 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥1.59) versus Asset-Based (¥0.8100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD engages in the research and development, production, and sale of recycled paper products in China. It offers white board paper, corrugated paper, and specialty paper. The company was formerly known as Shantou Songyang Paper Industry Co., Ltd.
Full company description
GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD engages in the research and development, production, and sale of recycled paper products in China. It offers white board paper, corrugated paper, and specialty paper. The company was formerly known as Shantou Songyang Paper Industry Co., Ltd. GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Shantou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GuangDong SongYang Recycle Resources CO.,LTD reported revenue of ¥443M in FY2025 versus ¥597M in FY2021, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥204M in FY2025.
603863 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥22.05 | ¥24.32 | +10% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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