Jiangxi Guotai Group (603977) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 8.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.50 – ¥17.00 · fair‑value band ¥4.82 – ¥8.63 · the ¥12.03 price screens above the ¥6.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangxi Guotai Group (603977) currently trades at ¥12.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.90, implying the stock looks roughly 42.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangxi Guotai Group generated revenue of 2.4B CNY at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at 612M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.82 (bear case) to ¥8.63 (bull case); at ¥12.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -43%, 603977 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥6.90) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.21). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the civil explosives, military new materials, rail transit automation, and information technology businesses in China. The company offers industrial explosives, such as permitted emulsion explosives for grade III coal mines; no.
Full company description
Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the civil explosives, military new materials, rail transit automation, and information technology businesses in China. The company offers industrial explosives, such as permitted emulsion explosives for grade III coal mines; no. 2 rock emulsion explosive; packaged emulsified granular ammonium oil explosives; and expanded ammonium nitrate explosive. It also provides detonating tube, industrial explosive cable, initiation busbar, electronic control module, electronic parallel pin wire, and basic detonator; and information technology products, such as Ganpo party building, Jiangxi State-owned assets safety supervision platform, mobile e-site, grassroots governance, smart factories, Gan Shutong industrial internet platform, digital surveying and mapping virtual simulation system, intelligent power supply safety management system, power supply operation safety management system, auxiliary monitoring system for railway traction substations, intelligent power supply operation and maintenance system, intelligent equipment inspection system, and 6C system integrated data processing center. In addition, the company offers small solid rocket engines and military tungsten-based destructive material. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangxi Guotai Group reported revenue of ¥2.4B in FY2025 versus ¥2.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥252M in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
603977 screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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