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Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian ¥6.89, price ¥11.26, upside -38.8%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100003092

JG Some data Sep 23, 2026

Jiangxi Guotai Civilian

603977 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥6.89 · Strongly overvalued (−39%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.15% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥17.00 ¥6.90 Fair Value ¥6.89 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.90 – ¥17.00 · fair‑value band ¥4.82 – ¥8.63 · the ¥11.26 price screens above the ¥6.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the civil explosives, military new materials, rail transit automation, and information technology businesses in China. The company offers industrial explosives, such as permitted emulsion explosives for grade III coal mines; no.

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Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the civil explosives, military new materials, rail transit automation, and information technology businesses in China. The company offers industrial explosives, such as permitted emulsion explosives for grade III coal mines; no. 2 rock emulsion explosive; packaged emulsified granular ammonium oil explosives; and expanded ammonium nitrate explosive. It also provides detonating tube, industrial explosive cable, initiation busbar, electronic control module, electronic parallel pin wire, and basic detonator; and information technology products, such as Ganpo party building, Jiangxi State-owned assets safety supervision platform, mobile e-site, grassroots governance, smart factories, Gan Shutong industrial internet platform, digital surveying and mapping virtual simulation system, intelligent power supply safety management system, power supply operation safety management system, auxiliary monitoring system for railway traction substations, intelligent power supply operation and maintenance system, intelligent equipment inspection system, and 6C system integrated data processing center. In addition, the company offers small solid rocket engines and military tungsten-based destructive material. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.

Stock analysis

Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) currently trades at ¥11.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.89, implying the stock looks roughly 63.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥6.90 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥11.26 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.21, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥4.82 (bear) to ¥8.63 (bull), the price of ¥11.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Jiangxi Guotai Civilian reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 252M CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 7.6B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 3.01 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4000 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −39%, 603977 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥4.82 Fair Value ¥6.89 Bull ¥8.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1975 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥4.44 ¥4.68 ¥5.02 76
EPV ¥5.68 ¥6.42 ¥7.05 74
ROIC Compounder ¥5.77 ¥7.32 ¥9.21 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.76 ¥12.80 ¥17.58 64
Lynch FV ¥3.37 ¥4.82 ¥6.26 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.37 ¥4.82 ¥6.26 57
EPV ¥5.68 ¥6.42 ¥7.05 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.28 ¥2.55 ¥3.87 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.28 ¥2.21 ¥2.69 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.18 ¥6.90 ¥8.63 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.27 ¥5.70 ¥7.12 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.18 ¥6.90 ¥8.63 55
EV/EBIT ¥7.21 ¥9.27 ¥11.33 66
EV/EBITDA ¥7.22 ¥9.29 ¥11.36 67
EV/Revenue ¥5.01 ¥6.72 ¥8.43 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.75 ¥3.68 ¥5.50 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.44 ¥4.68 ¥5.02 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.77 ¥7.32 ¥9.21 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.82 ¥6.89 ¥8.95 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.2% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

603977 screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 706 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −40% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.99× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.0× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)17 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $464.91 $441.28 −5%
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $328.35 $148.97 −55%
Ecolab Inc ECL $276.22 $96.18 −65%
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $287.86 $122.14 −58%
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 3,464 CHF 1,523 −56%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.66 ¥68.03 −4%
Sika AG SIKA CHF 188.90 CHF 98.89 −48%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,449 ₹1,479 −40%
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $107.77 $77.06 −28%
DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR CHF 91.50 CHF 29.27 −68%

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Jiangxi Guotai Civilian · Fair Value
¥6.89 −63%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangxi Guotai Civilian Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603977

Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.89 versus a price of ¥11.26, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603977?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is ¥6.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.26.
What is the quality score of 603977?
Jiangxi Guotai Civilian has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.82, optimistic scenario ¥8.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangxi Guotai Civilian stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.89, about −39% upside versus a price of ¥11.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.82, optimistic scenario ¥8.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Jiangxi Guotai Civilian reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Jiangxi Guotai Civilian pay a dividend?
Jiangxi Guotai Civilian currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangxi Guotai Civilian it is ¥6.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥11.26. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangxi Guotai Civilian stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 603977 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.26, fair value ¥6.89, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603977?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.89). For Jiangxi Guotai Civilian the two are ¥4.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangxi Guotai Civilian worth?
The market values Jiangxi Guotai Civilian at about 7.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.26; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603977?
Our models span a range for Jiangxi Guotai Civilian: cautious scenario ¥4.82, base ¥6.89, optimistic ¥8.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥11.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603977?
Jiangxi Guotai Civilian trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603977 from its 52-week high?
Jiangxi Guotai Civilian trades at ¥11.26, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥17.00 and 5% above the low of ¥10.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangxi Guotai Civilian?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangxi Guotai Civilian stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥11.26, calculated fair value ¥6.89 (−39%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603977 calculated?
We run Jiangxi Guotai Civilian through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangxi Guotai Civilian itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥11.26. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.89, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangxi Guotai Civilian right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian grew +0.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin −6.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian

How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 7.6B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 3.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian are ¥0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The dividend yield of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 1.2% (payout 32.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The net margin of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
The operating margin of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Revenue at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977)?
Earnings per share at Jiangxi Guotai Civilian are growing −14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is −242M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jiangxi Guotai Civilian (603977) carry?
The net debt of Jiangxi Guotai Civilian is 612M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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