Honma Golf Limited (6858) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Honma Golf Limited HK$3.17, price HK$2.91, upside +9.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.58 – HK$4.53 · fair‑value band HK$2.82 – HK$3.97 · the HK$2.91 price screens below the HK$3.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Honma Golf Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells a range of golf club equipment in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, rest of China, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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Honma Golf Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells a range of golf club equipment in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, rest of China, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers driver, fairway, utility, hybrid, iron, wedge, and putter clubs; and golf balls, caddie bags, golf bags, golf club head covers, golf gloves, shoes, belts and socks, and other golf-related accessories. It also offers apparel for men and women under the BERES, TOUR WORLD, Be ZEAL, and HONMA brands; and engages in trading business. The company distributes its products through HONMA-branded self-operated stores; third-party retailers, including sports megastores; and wholesale distributors that on-sell to other third parties. Honma Golf Limited was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Honma Golf Limited (6858) currently trades at HK$2.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.17, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$29.47 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.91 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$11.50, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.82 (bear) to HK$3.97 (bull), the price of HK$2.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Honma Golf Limited reported revenue of 23.5B CNY in FY2026 versus 29.0B CNY in FY2022, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2026, compounding −33.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.8B (≈ $225M) · P/E ratio 31.9 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) HK$−3.00 · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin −16.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 9%, 6858 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.82Fair Value HK$3.17Bull HK$3.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −10%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−17% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
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Is Honma Golf Limited (6858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.17 versus a price of HK$2.91, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 6858?
Our model-based fair value for Honma Golf Limited is HK$3.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.91.
What is the quality score of 6858?
Honma Golf Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.82, optimistic scenario HK$3.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Honma Golf Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.17, about +9% upside versus a price of HK$2.91 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$2.82, optimistic scenario HK$3.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Honma Golf Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 19.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Honma Golf Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6858 use?
Our models discount Honma Golf Limited at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Honma Golf Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Honma Golf Limited (6858) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Honma Golf Limited grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Honma Golf Limited (6858) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Honma Golf Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.19 %: that much free cash flow Honma Golf Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Honma Golf Limited it is HK$3.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Honma Golf Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6858 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.91, fair value HK$3.17, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6858?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.17). For Honma Golf Limited the two are HK$0.2630 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Honma Golf Limited worth?
The market values Honma Golf Limited at about HK$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.91; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6858?
Our models span a range for Honma Golf Limited: cautious scenario HK$2.82, base HK$3.17, optimistic HK$3.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6858?
Honma Golf Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Balance-sheet figures for Honma Golf Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6858 from its 52-week high?
Honma Golf Limited trades at HK$2.91, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$3.55 and 4% above the low of HK$2.79 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Honma Golf Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Honma Golf Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.91, calculated fair value HK$3.17 (+9%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6858 calculated?
We run Honma Golf Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Honma Golf Limited currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was HK$2.91. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.17, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Honma Golf Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Honma Golf Limited (6858) come from?
Earnings per share at Honma Golf Limited grew −2.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.1 %, EBIT margin −11.4 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Honma Golf Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The market capitalisation of Honma Golf Limited is HK$1.8B (≈ $225M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Honma Golf Limited is 1.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Earnings per share at Honma Golf Limited are HK$−3.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The net margin of Honma Golf Limited is 5.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Honma Golf Limited is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Honma Golf Limited is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
The operating margin of Honma Golf Limited is −16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Revenue at Honma Golf Limited is growing −19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Honma Golf Limited (6858)?
Earnings per share at Honma Golf Limited are growing −61.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Honma Golf Limited (6858) hold?
Honma Golf Limited holds more cash than debt, 10.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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