Grace Wine Holdings Ltd (8146) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$337M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −19.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0487 – HK$0.9700 · fair‑value band HK$0.0900 – HK$0.1300 · the HK$0.3200 price screens above the HK$0.1100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Grace Wine Holdings Ltd (8146) currently trades at HK$0.3200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1100, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grace Wine Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$34.9M at a net margin of -6.2%. Revenue declined 10.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$18.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0900 (bear case) to HK$0.1300 (bull case); at HK$0.3200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 217% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -66%, 8146 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$0.9000) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0700). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Notify me when 8146 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grace Wine Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and distribution of wine, spirits, and other alcoholic products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Production of Wines and Production of Spirits.
Full company description
Grace Wine Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and distribution of wine, spirits, and other alcoholic products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Production of Wines and Production of Spirits. The company offers blends of red, white, and sparkling wines, as well as seasonal series. It also plants vine and sells wine grapes. It offers wine primarily under the Grace Vineyard brand. Grace Wine Holdings Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong. Grace Wine Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Hill Valley Investment Co Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grace Wine Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$34.0M in FY2025 versus HK$84.7M in FY2021, a compound −20.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$4.5M in FY2025.
8146 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,343 | ¥1,238 | -8% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $93.96 | $73.29 | -22% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥75.28 | ¥48.44 | -36% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥122.32 | ¥185.80 | +52% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €67.96 | €76.13 | +12% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥91.09 | ¥149.17 | +64% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.40 | $27.69 | -3% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,515 | ₹381.12 | -75% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4700 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +49% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥41.62 | ¥27.82 | -33% |
Compare Grace Wine Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Grace Wine Holdings Ltd (8146) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 8146?
What is the quality score of 8146?
What is the revenue of Grace Wine Holdings Ltd (8146)?
What is the net profit margin of 8146?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Grace Wine Holdings Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.