BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of BCI Group Holdings Ltd HK$0.21, price HK$0.38, upside -44.1%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2450 – HK$12.86 · fair‑value band HK$0.1615 – HK$0.3060 · the HK$0.3800 price screens above the HK$0.2125 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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New Amante Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of club and entertainment, and catering services primarily in Hong Kong. The company owns and operates lounges under LKF Lounge and Amante House names; and a cigar shop under the Wanchai Amante Shop name.
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New Amante Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of club and entertainment, and catering services primarily in Hong Kong. The company owns and operates lounges under LKF Lounge and Amante House names; and a cigar shop under the Wanchai Amante Shop name. It also engages in the provision of public relations services; sale of tobacco, food, beverages, entrance fees, sponsorship income, and related ancillary services; and consultancy services. In addition, the company engages in the supply of bottled water and is exploring new business initiatives in sparkling wine, liquors, and tea beverages. The company was formerly known as BCI Group Holdings Limited. New Amante Group Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412) currently trades at HK$0.3800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2125, 44.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4600 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.3800 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0500, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1615 (bear) to HK$0.3060 (bull), the price of HK$0.3800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
BCI Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$38.8M in FY2025 versus HK$24.4M in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$4.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$43.5M (≈ $5.6M) · P/S ratio 1.00 · Net margin −12.6% · Return on equity −2,106% · Return on assets (EBIT) −31.7% · Operating margin −38.4% · Revenue (TTM) HK$39.9M · Revenue growth (YoY) +8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −44%, 8412 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1615Fair Value HK$0.2125Bull HK$0.3060
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−56.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−49.9% (2020) → −14.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−44.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−10.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−38.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.64× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.14× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)43· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BCI Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8412
Frequently asked questions
Is BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2125 versus a price of HK$0.3800, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8412?
Our model-based fair value for BCI Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2125 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3800.
What is the quality score of 8412?
BCI Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2125 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1615, optimistic scenario HK$0.3060. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BCI Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2125, about −44% upside versus a price of HK$0.3800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1615, optimistic scenario HK$0.3060. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
BCI Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$39.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BCI Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2125 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3800. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BCI Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8412 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3800, fair value HK$0.2125, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8412?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2125). For BCI Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.1675 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BCI Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values BCI Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$43.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2125 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8412?
Our models span a range for BCI Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1615, base HK$0.2125, optimistic HK$0.3060 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.3800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 8412 from its 52-week high?
BCI Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3800, about 16% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4500 and 55% above the low of HK$0.2450 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2125 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BCI Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BCI Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.3800, calculated fair value HK$0.2125 (−44%), Quality Score 30/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8412 calculated?
We run BCI Group Holdings Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2125, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. BCI Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.3800. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2125, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BCI Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3060). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1615 to HK$0.3060) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BCI Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The market capitalisation of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is HK$43.5M (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is 1.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The net margin of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is −12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is −2,106% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is −31.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
The operating margin of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is −38.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412)?
Revenue at BCI Group Holdings Ltd is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412) generate?
The free cash flow of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is −HK$5.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BCI Group Holdings Ltd (8412) carry?
The net debt of BCI Group Holdings Ltd is HK$2.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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