Wines Link International Holdings (8509) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Wines Link International Holdings HK$1.33, price HK$0.50, upside +166.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2600 – HK$1.00 · fair‑value band HK$1.11 – HK$1.74 · the HK$0.5000 price screens below the HK$1.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Wine's Link International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the wholesale and retail of various wine products and other alcoholic beverages in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China.
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Wine's Link International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the wholesale and retail of various wine products and other alcoholic beverages in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company provides wine products, such as premium collectible red, fine red, and white wine products; other alcoholic beverages, such as champagne, whisky, baijiu, and sake; and wine accessory products, including wine decanters, wine glasses, and wine openers. Wine's Link International Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Wines Link International Holdings (8509) currently trades at HK$0.5000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.33, implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.35 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.5000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.6300, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.11 (bear) to HK$1.74 (bull), the price of HK$0.5000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Wines Link International Holdings reported revenue of HK$359M in FY2026 versus HK$222M in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$40.1M in FY2026, compounding +17.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$200M (≈ $25.5M) · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% · Operating margin 15.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 166%, 8509 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.11Fair Value HK$1.33Bull HK$1.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0101 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.6% vs 26.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Compare Wines Link International Holdings with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 95 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wines Link International Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8509
Frequently asked questions
Is Wines Link International Holdings (8509) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.33 versus a price of HK$0.5000, about +166% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8509?
Our model-based fair value for Wines Link International Holdings is HK$1.33 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5000.
What is the quality score of 8509?
Wines Link International Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.33 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.11, optimistic scenario HK$1.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wines Link International Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.33, about +166% upside versus a price of HK$0.5000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.11, optimistic scenario HK$1.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Wines Link International Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$359M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wines Link International Holdings it is HK$1.33 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5000. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wines Link International Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8509 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5000, fair value HK$1.33, a gap of about +166% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8509?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.33). For Wines Link International Holdings the two are HK$0.8300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wines Link International Holdings worth?
The market values Wines Link International Holdings at about HK$200M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8509?
Our models span a range for Wines Link International Holdings: cautious scenario HK$1.11, base HK$1.33, optimistic HK$1.74 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8509?
Wines Link International Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wines Link International Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 11.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8509 from its 52-week high?
Wines Link International Holdings trades at HK$0.5000, about 38% below its 52-week high of HK$0.8100 and 5% above the low of HK$0.4750 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wines Link International Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wines Link International Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5000, calculated fair value HK$1.33 (+166%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8509 calculated?
We run Wines Link International Holdings through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Wines Link International Holdings currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.5000. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.33, about +166% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wines Link International Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Wines Link International Holdings (8509) come from?
Earnings per share at Wines Link International Holdings grew +23.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin +11.4 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wines Link International Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The market capitalisation of Wines Link International Holdings is HK$200M (≈ $25.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wines Link International Holdings is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Earnings per share at Wines Link International Holdings are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The net margin of Wines Link International Holdings is 11.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wines Link International Holdings is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wines Link International Holdings is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
The operating margin of Wines Link International Holdings is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Revenue at Wines Link International Holdings is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Earnings per share at Wines Link International Holdings are growing +7.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Wines Link International Holdings (8509) generate?
The free cash flow of Wines Link International Holdings is −HK$90.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Wines Link International Holdings (8509) carry?
The net debt of Wines Link International Holdings is HK$101M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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