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Wines Link International Holdings (8509) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$232M

WL Wines Link International Holdings 8509 · HK
PriceHK$0.6000
Fair ValueHK$1.72
Upside+186.7%
Quality64/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/13)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.28 – HK$2.21 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −4.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 187% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.00 HK$0.1890 Fair Value HK$1.72 Jul 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1890 – HK$1.00 · fair‑value band HK$1.28 – HK$2.21 · the HK$0.6000 price screens below the HK$1.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Wines Link International Holdings (8509) currently trades at HK$0.6000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.72, implying the stock looks roughly 186.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Wines Link International Holdings generated revenue of HK$335M at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue declined 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. Net debt stands at HK$101M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.28 (bear case) to HK$2.21 (bull case); at HK$0.6000, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 187%, 8509 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.91 HK$3.85 HK$4.96 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.84 HK$2.47 HK$3.21 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9300 HK$1.05 HK$1.20 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.90 HK$4.00 HK$5.37 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.12 HK$1.51 HK$2.00 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.84 HK$2.42 HK$3.11 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.08 HK$2.86 HK$3.74 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.13 HK$2.96 HK$3.80 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.27 HK$2.86 HK$3.59 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.42 HK$3.12 HK$3.99 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.44 HK$3.18 HK$4.04 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.6800 HK$2.16 HK$2.88 54
Lynch FV HK$0.4700 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8800 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8800 46
EPV HK$0.9300 HK$1.02 HK$1.10 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.58 HK$2.11 HK$2.63 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.08 HK$1.43 HK$1.79 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.28 HK$1.71 HK$2.13 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.81 HK$2.37 HK$2.92 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.61 HK$2.11 HK$2.60 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.08 HK$1.48 HK$1.88 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4700 HK$0.6300 HK$0.9400 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.91 HK$3.85 HK$4.96 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.84 HK$2.47 HK$3.21 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7500 HK$0.8100 HK$0.9300 61
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9300 HK$1.05 HK$1.20 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.31 HK$1.88 HK$2.44 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.86) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.6300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$335M
Revenue growth (YoY) -24.6%
Net margin 11.3%
Return on equity 11.7%
Free cash flow HK$133M FY2025
P/E ratio 6.7
More key figures
Operating margin 11.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0900
EPS growth (YoY) -16.0%
Net debt HK$101M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Wine's Link International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the wholesale and retail of various wine products and other alcoholic beverages in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Wine's Link International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the wholesale and retail of various wine products and other alcoholic beverages in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company provides wine products, such as premium collectible red, fine red, and white wine products; other alcoholic beverages, such as champagne, whisky, baijiu, and sake; and wine accessory products, including wine decanters, wine glasses, and wine openers. Wine's Link International Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Wines Link International Holdings reported revenue of HK$359M in FY2026 versus HK$222M in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$40.1M in FY2026, compounding +17.2%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$359M
Latest YoY
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.7%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.2%
Revenue +12.7%/yr
FY22 HK$222M
FY23 HK$148M
FY24 HK$217M
FY25 HK$374M
FY26 HK$359M
Net income +17.2%/yr
FY22 HK$21.2M
FY23 HK$16.6M
FY24 HK$31.2M
FY25 HK$39.8M
FY26 HK$40.1M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +23.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.9 pp

of which total revenue +2.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +11.4 pp
Tax rate +0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +8.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Wines Link International Holdings · Fair Value
HK$1.72 +187%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wines Link International Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8509

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +187% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth -25% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 17
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 47 · sector 17
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 61

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,343 ¥1,238 -8%
Diageo plc DEO $93.96 $73.29 -22%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥75.28 ¥48.44 -36%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥122.32 ¥185.80 +52%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €67.96 €76.13 +12%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥91.09 ¥149.17 +64%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $28.40 $27.69 -3%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,515 ₹381.12 -75%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4700 SGD 0.7000 SGD +49%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥41.62 ¥27.82 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Wines Link International Holdings (8509) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.72 versus a price of HK$0.6000, about +187% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8509?
Our model-based fair value for Wines Link International Holdings is HK$1.72 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6000.
What is the quality score of 8509?
Wines Link International Holdings has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Wines Link International Holdings (8509)?
Wines Link International Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$335M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8509?
The net profit margin of Wines Link International Holdings is about 11.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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