Hainan Airlines Holding (900945) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap $8.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 12, 2026, revised from $0.9300 to $0.1200 (−87.1%) since Jul 24, 2026. Share price −5.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.0900 to $0.1800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1240 – $0.3400 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.1800 · the $0.2070 price screens above the $0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
Analysis
Hainan Airlines Holding (900945) currently trades at $0.2070, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1200, implying the stock looks roughly 42.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hainan Airlines Holding generated revenue of $69.3B at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 77.9%. Net debt stands at $31.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0900 (bear case) to $0.1800 (bull case); at $0.2070, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -42%, 900945 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($3.11) versus Asset-Based ($0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd. provides air passenger, cargo, and mail transportation services in the People's Republic of China and Internationally. The company also offers german rail and pet cabin care services; business ticket packages; seat selection, prepaid baggage, upgrade air meals, and insurance products.
Full company description
Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd. provides air passenger, cargo, and mail transportation services in the People's Republic of China and Internationally. The company also offers german rail and pet cabin care services; business ticket packages; seat selection, prepaid baggage, upgrade air meals, and insurance products. It operates 1,400 domestic and international routes, including nearly 1,300 domestic routes, covering all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in the Chinese mainland, as well as 170 international and regional routes to 46 overseas cities, covering Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Africa. The company was formerly known as Hainan Airlines Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hainan Airlines Holding Co.,Ltd. in May 2017. Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Haikou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hainan Airlines Holding reported revenue of $68.5B in FY2025 versus $34.0B in FY2021, a compound +19.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding −19.5%/yr from FY2021.
900945 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Peer Group
Airlines · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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